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Non-Tech : Kirk's Market Thoughts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: benwood who wrote (9490)	4/26/2020 8:07:20 PM
From: Kirk ©	1 Recommendation Recommended By benwood Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 26426

Have you seen this site that calculates Rt? rt.live When the curve started to bend up for CA, the politicians changed the lie about the effectiveness of masks and started requiring them for many counties in our state. While some states are already opening up, the top graph for all 50 states shows that the 90% confidence interval says it could be a mistake for even the lowest value of Rt. That is a 1 in 10 chance opening up a week early could put you back ... (actually since the negative 5% would be a lower Rt, it is probably a 1 in 20 chance... still, I'd feel better with 1 in 99 or higher, especially since we should all know how worthless, er wrong, the climate models came out a making predictions... ) I believe the peaking corresponds with them implementing much more serious social distancing measures for grocery and other "essential" stores to remain open... shopping here was a lot easier a couple of weeks ago. It is much safer but a bigger hassle.

To: benwood who wrote (9490)	4/26/2020 8:07:58 PM
From: Sun Tzu	Respond to of 26426

The rate of the rise in the number of new cases has closely matched the rate of the rise in the number tests. Once we stopped increasing the number of tests available, the new coronavirus case rates also stalled. You may want to note that the for the past 2 days the US has reported substantially above average new cases. In fact, made a new all time high the day before yesterday. Another couple days like that this week, and you will have to question the presumption that the cases have peaked in the US. PS I used to run a predictive model of the contagion and a lot of people on SI thought that it was very accurate. But since I lost a relative in NYC to COVID-19 last week, I've stopped my work...it's just too painful.