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Non-Tech : Kirk's Market Thoughts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kirk © who wrote (9628)	5/3/2020 1:34:19 PM
From: edward miller	2 Recommendations Recommended By Brian Sullivan Kirk © Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 26444

I dumped all REITs, admittedly a little late. Since I can't envision people going back to the old normal I am quite pessimistic about the situation in RE. There are so many rents to pay, mortgages to pay, or not. Taking on debt assumed a normal continuation of business that now will never be the same. I can't see how this works, but I am more pessimistic than most based on what I see at SI. I see new lows but I have no idea when or what happens in between. Maybe that's not helpful but you asked if anyone sees another big leg down. I think it's coming but I don't know when. Part of the answer has to be how aggressively monetary measures continue and for how long. Predicting the end game is "way beyond my pay grade" as the saying goes.

To: Kirk © who wrote (9628)	5/3/2020 2:00:41 PM
From: Investor2	1 Recommendation Recommended By Kirk © Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 26444

Re: "Does anyone think the low is in for real estate or will there be another big leg down when renters stop paying rent and retailers in malls declare bankruptcy?" My local realtor claims that people are still buying houses, due to the favorable interest rates and loan availability. She is still showing homes. The REITs have definitely taken a hit, especially those focusing on shopping malls and the like. Unfortunately, I'm still holding my REITs. Just seeing how things are going with COVID-19, there will probably be at least a test of the lows. Best wishes, I2

To: Kirk © who wrote (9628)	5/3/2020 3:11:31 PM
From: berniel	Respond to of 26444

With the average home cost around 250k. It isn't going to take much of a rise in rates to keep the average wage American out of the market. Since most are 2 wage earners now. New homes are pricing out new buyers and what's left on the market below 200k is pretty much dumps. So yes it's not going to make much to bring it down. JMO Of course my point of view is as a single person. Bernie

To: Kirk © who wrote (9628)	5/3/2020 6:34:57 PM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 26444

Hi Kirk, Real estate is quite an all encompassing subject. Commercial real estate has more pain coming. Single family and multifamily. Not so much. Millennials are actually (finally) forming households. There is a huge shortage of single family real estate available in the market. With mortgages at recor lows, and millennials coming on (after a long delay), I think they buoy the market. This Covid 19 has pushed many into e commerce for all items - even groceries and doctor calls. This will create less demand for retail commercial space. The trend I think has accelerated. Good locations - no problem. Marginal locations - an accelerating problem with regard to commercial space. Bob

To: Kirk © who wrote (9628)	5/3/2020 11:02:15 PM
From: Sun Tzu	Respond to of 26444

RE is too diverse to be lumped all in one. Housing is not bursting b/c nobody is willing to sell their home in this market. So the prices have stuck around. If it is going to come down, it will come down once the mortgage relief is over and UI dries up. Malls and office spaces are probably having a dead bounce and are due for further drop. Industrial RE, e.g. EQIX and American Tower, etc have actually been making new highs and are unlikely to visit their lows. Medical REs are a mixed group. There are a couple of very good guys on Seeking Alpha who write about REITs and their various subsections. I'd suggest that head over there and study the issue in greater detail, if you are really interested.