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Technology Stocks : Western Digital (WDC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Harold S. who wrote (8525)	1/28/1998 7:07:00 AM
From: T Bowl	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 11057

Harold - I think I'll hold off until we hear what they have to say on Thur PM. I've yet to see any company start to take off right after earnings are reported(this Q)... Trend during the last several trading days doesn't look pretty IMO. todd

To: Harold S. who wrote (8525)	1/28/1998 1:32:00 PM
From: Randy Ellingson	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 11057

Harold, I'm holding now (after watching and learning while WDC went from my 32 to 54 to now 17) though I'm not so sure 2 years from now that will necessarily turn out to have been the best move. Here's why. Hard drives are clearly a commodity item today. There are several high-capacity producers of high-quality drives, all competing on price (almost) alone. Basically, the only time these companies will make good money is during times of short supply. This could happen, and I sure hope it does soon. The other scenario is for WDC to innovate and distinguish itself from the others with a technology lead (this doesn't appear likely). Now I ask for some help. I understand that such a price war on HD's has occurred in the past. Can anyone attest to the severity of that situation as it compares to today? Is this a case of history repeating itself? Can someone describe the scenario under which WDC, SEG, and QNTM (for example) return to the days of making $3.00 per share? Does the industry just silently agree to price drives to screw the oem who screws the end-buyer? Or does the industry consolidate to the point where this silent agreement is easy (only two players or something?)? What does the future hold, and when is it most clearly a good idea to invest in commodity producers? Are we hoping the world's storage needs far outpace production capabilities? I guess that could happen if some of the drive companies close their doors. Randy