To: qdog who wrote (7711 ) 1/30/1998 3:34:00 AM From: tero kuittinen Read Replies (4) | Respond to of 152472
Hi qdog, and thanks for refraining from ad hominem attacks. Point 1. Nokia has R&D facilities in both China and USA. This does not mean either are highly developed markets for digital mobile telephony, it just means they are important markets. Point 2. In northern European countries over 95% of the mobile phones now sold are digital. *This* is one definition of a highly developed market for digital phones. In some countires over *30%* of the households have a digital phone. *This* is another definition of a highly developed market. In USA not even 5% of households have a digital phone: USA is 3-4 years behind. Even countries like Italy and Spain have a higher market penetration of digital handsets than USA. The fact that Nokia sells analog phones in USA does not reflect badly on the company... it does so also in Brazil. It merely reflects the stage the country in question currently is at. Why is this fact that has been verifies by WSJ, Businessweek and Fortune in their recent and well-read articles so hard to admit? I mean, USA is the undisputed world leader in software, computers, etc., etc. Why would anyone want to claim that USA has to be the leader in every high tech field even if it flies against reason? I know you invoke the name of God in your dollar bills (which makes me a bit queasy)... this does not mean USA was destined to lead every market in the world. I'm referring to American media sources here when I state that Europe is more sophisticated and technologically advanced when it comes to mobile phones. I won't bother to tell you what the European media has to say on the matter. Show me one (1) source claiming USA lead in the field of digital mobile phone field. Point 3. "when Motorola decides to dominate they will hurt everyone". Motorola has now had seven (7) years of steady decline in its core market, mobile telephones. It had 65% of the phone market, it will finish 1998 with barely 20%. It was undisputed number one, now it is number three without a bullet. This is all due to the underdeveloped US mobile market. The country hung onto analog model too long and Mot missed the digital boat. It appears to be a little late to climb back. The fact that USA did not agree on one national standard is directly responsible of the consumer resistance to digital phones. The standard situation is an unfathomable mess for the average consumer. In Europe, one standard created a customer friendly environment, drew 20 companies to develop and market GSM phones, created fierce competition, pushed down phone prices, expanded the market. The result: experts now forecast 80% market penetration in digital phones in Europe before the growth starts to cool down. GSM created a product that is doing what the PC was unable to do: break down the resistance of anti-technology consumers and produce a monster consumer hit that is literally ubiquitous. Thanks to one standard approach. Point 4. "Twenty phones?? Anybody in Europe/Asia/US/world sells their wares in this country" Yes... but those twenty GSM models available in Europe are available to *one* standard. In USA, how many phone manufacturers offer a cutting edge CDMA phone? Three? Of which two have the same chip set? Is this competition? Qualcomm's latest entry, the Q-phone would be literally unsellable in Europe. Nobody would by a phone with that kind of talk time/stand-by time. That technological stage was surpassed circa 1995. The older Qualcomm phones are heavy, bulky, outdated monstrosities. I raised the question of handset quality here almost two years ago. People said that the standard is so superior that CDMA phones will soon surpass GSM phones in quality and several manufacturers are flocking to get their phones on sale. Let's look at the world's top three manufacturers, responsible of 65% of the world mobile phone sales. Ericsson: no CDMA phones; Motorola: phone introduction delayed at least three times: Nokia: two phones based on the 2100 technology introduced five years and two technology generations ago. CDMA phones are not catching up with the technological innovations of their GSM counterparts. How could they? R&D investment in the GSM sector is ten times higher than in CDMA sector. Phillips, Siemens, Sony, Nokia, Ericsson, Motorola are pouring billions of dollars to develop the latest hot GSM gadget. I ask you, what economical model predicts that a proprietary standard will win over an open standard such as GSM when the open standard is approaching 100 million customers and is the main focus of the six biggest spenders in the mobile phone biz? Nokia's GSM phones are three years more advanced than its CDMA phones and Motorola is following the same strategy. The indifference shown to global developments in the field of mobile telephony in this thread is really remarkable. Remember when I broached the issue of third generation mobile systems in this thread and people just laughed at the mere idea? Remember when I said that Nokia/Ericsson model for 3G now has the backing of NTT-Docomo and received a one-line answer: "Really?". Well, yes, really. There still is an air of denial about the 3G here. People cannot believe that USA could be by-passed by Asian-European alliance in the matter of 3G. They cannot grasp that the combined size of European and Asian markets in 2001 will be such that the manufacturers in those continents will not need the approval of Americans in the standard issue. USA can be forced to accept the new standard or it can adopt its own and become a smaller market. It is widely reported here in Europe that the new European/Asian standard is *not* compatible with Qualcomm's brand of CDMA. Only with GSM. No matter what you think of my opinion, I suggest you look into this matter before Wall Street starts to add it all up. Tero