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Technology Stocks : Micron Only Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DJBEINO who wrote (27476)	1/30/1998 9:56:00 PM
From: TREND1	Respond to of 53903

DJ Damn ! You are GOOD! We all thank you again and again !! Larry Dudash

To: DJBEINO who wrote (27476)	1/30/1998 10:06:00 PM
From: Skeeter Bug	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53903

if mu's asp is $3.05 then they lose nearly $0.50 this q. fy2000 eps is estimated at $1.65 (and they've neve even been close yet - always way too high!) means we have a stock at a 22 pe to eps 2 years out in a commodity business. people are now greedy. they are scared to miss out on another run-up like mu had several years ago. when greed wins over reason, bad things, very bad things sometimes, happen more often than not. btw, what body cavity did they pull $75 out of for $1.65 in fy2000 earnings?

To: DJBEINO who wrote (27476)	1/31/1998 12:36:00 AM
From: Richard Russell	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 53903

DJB <<Headline: Micron Technology: Bottleneck in Testing; Projections Edge Lower (LEHMAN-1/26/98) ---------- ** ONGOING TESTING BOTTLENECK CUTS FEB. FY2Q98 BIT GROWTH PROSPECTS BY 5%; PROJECTIONS EDGE DOWN. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ ----- TESTING BOTTLENECK CONTINUES. Late Friday management confirmed that testing is an ongoing bottleneck. >> Is this an old story released on 1/26/98 refering to friday 1/23/98 or does does refer to a release by Lehman today friday 1/30/98? RR

To: DJBEINO who wrote (27476)	2/1/1998 12:11:00 AM
From: Earlie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53903

Djbeino: Thanks for the continuing info gathering and posting. Might I refer you to my post of Jan 23., wherein I commented upon MU's "emerging test facility problems". (#27043) Good to receive the "confirmation". (g) By the way, if the Lehman analyst can't provide an acceptable estimate for this quarter, what the dickens is he doing with respect to 1999 anr 2000? The material he provides is more appropriate to a collection of fairy tales. Nobody in their right mind makes projections out there given the dynamic nature of this industry. Too bad this child doesn't get out into the industry to see what's going on, rather than diddling with his computer and swizzling the material he is hand fed from management. On another point, having been absent for a bit, did David ever apologize for his .25 micron vs. .30 micron diatribe? I probably missed it (g). I'm actually going to enjoy the coming rout of this stock, for more reasons than just the money that will be made. When a company doesn't and can't make money, and when it is priced on a dream of former times, the fall is always rather dramatic. This stock doesn't have a massive short position without reason, and it is not comprised of little old ladies. Principal accounts rarely make big short bets on other than what they consider to be "no brainers. You'd be surprised at who has now joined the Vaderian league. Best, Earlie ,

To: DJBEINO who wrote (27476)	2/1/1998 5:34:00 PM
From: mike iles	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 53903

DJ, Thanks for the post, this is helpful information. One of the key variables with MU is unit volume and now we have a fix on that. Lehman's numbers check out against my model ... if I plug in unit growth of 9 1/2% (7-12%), I get volume of 98.8 million units (BTW you have to laugh when MU complains about the Koreans flooding the market ... on the other hand I agree that they shouldn't be financed in a non-economic fashion). Times the $3.05 price and you get revenue of $301 million. Last quarter costs were $415 million so lets assume $420 million this quarter (no davidG costs don't go down ... costs per unit do as long as MU can keep cranking out more chips). A loss of $119 million or .56 per share which is close enuff to Lehman's .50. All of my numbers are just for the semi unit. Have no idea what MUEI will do (and don't care ... just take it out, currently it's worth a whopping $3.35 per MU share). Being a forever bear, where I part company with the esteemed Lehman analyst is thinking that memory prices will go up later this year ... don't they usually go down?? Re the Koreans, aren't $billion fabs that earn vital foreign exchange going to be the last thing that they shut down? MU's rise in the last few weeks has certainly taken the mickey out of me ... this must mean it's time to buy more puts! regards, Mike