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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Big Bucks who wrote (15226)	2/1/1998 12:24:00 PM
From: Clarksterh	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

BB - Re: October was start of another down cycle. The past down cycle in '96 was due to overcapacity in all segments of the semi market (commodity and logic), and it never really had time to go thru a complete cycle before it was interupted by macro-economics in SEA. Thus, I would expect that this 'cycle' will be substantially different than the last one: 1) This 'cycle' started from a base where there are many semi manufacturers who haven't upgraded their equipment in 2 years (a lifetime in the semi industry). At the beginning of the last cycle (early '96), everyone had lots of the newest and best equipment. They could afford to delay new purchases then, but it is a dangerous game now. 2) This 'cycle' is largely driven by uncertainty. 'What's going to happen with Japan?' 'Is China going to devalue?', ... . The dynamics of this psychology are likely to be very different from the driver of the last cycle - over-supply in almost all segments. The last true cycle was like a river during the dry season, but this 'cycle' is more like an artificial dam put across the river upstream. When it goes it is really going to be a flood. Clark

To: Big Bucks who wrote (15226)	2/1/1998 12:26:00 PM
From: dave luken	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

To all amat followers, I have been trying to decide whether to buy amat at the current levels or wait for the first quarter earnings release in mid feb. before i buy. What bothers me right now is the first quarter (nov-jan) has been the worst time in the pacific rim for those countries stock markets and currency valuatations. Looking at amat sales for fiscal 97 the pacific rim accounted for 48.4% of all sales. It seems to me that this quarter could be trouble for amat and that i may be able to buy the stock after earnings release in the mid to high 20's?. I am no expert in the least bit when it comes to tech stocks, so if I am missing something here, i would appreciate someone filling me in. Thanks.(taken from sec filing).http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/6951/0000891618-98-000207.txt

To: Big Bucks who wrote (15226)	2/1/1998 4:05:00 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

BB, Re:I think we are in the same scenario again. AMAT will gather strength and market share due to this downturn but will be penalized by investors, due mainly to the weak semi-equip/chip sector, not due to any real issues or problems inherent within the company I simply am contending that the market will realize AMAT for the bargain it is relative to others in the equipment group sooner (namely LRCX, UTEK etc)and will be able to climb out of the ravine we've fallen into probably not too long from now. With interest rates where they are and possibly headed lower, I cannot fathom AMAT trading at 15X this years eps, esp since we are nearly a quarter of the way through this year(Read:Fiscal) and the market will have to begin to discount FY99 eps for AMAT sooner than for others since their calendar year does not mirror their fiscal year. BTW, if the market truly discounts 6-9 mos out, we are not too long from impounding FY99 eps into the stock price, reason alone for a substantial run. Add in the interest rate factor and IMO you have a possible explosion to the upside. Also + for the group and AMAT in particluar is the weak relative strength. The last time AMAT's RS was this weak was the summer of '96 and we all know what followed. Regards, Brian