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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: TobagoJack who wrote (169943)3/27/2021 6:58:56 PM
From: SirWalterRalegh  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 219578
 
For all that may matter suspect the canal blockage incident was arranged for by state-level actor as a trial-run


Maybe an individual Muslim jihadi

MH370: Malaysia Airlines' captain deliberately crashed plane ...



To: TobagoJack who wrote (169943)3/27/2021 7:28:31 PM
From: TobagoJack  Respond to of 219578
 
Hmnnnnn

wsj.com

‘Stuck Big Time’ in Suez Canal: How Ship Caused Global Supply Traffic Jam

Initial probe into blockage focuses on a seasonal sandstorm and a sudden burst of wind

By , and
Updated March 27, 2021 1:50 pm ET


Satellite imagery shows tug boats and dredgers attempting to free the Ever Given, stuck in the Suez Canal. Photo: Agence France-Presse/Getty ImagesThe sun rose as one of the world’s largest container ships entered the Suez Canal toward the Mediterranean Sea. But aboard the Ever Given, an overnight desert storm obscured Tuesday’s daybreak and buffeted a vessel four football fields long.

Staring out the bridge windows, the captain navigated the critical choke point for global shipping. Beside him stood two Egyptian pilots mandated to accompany all large vessels on the half-day journey. Then a gust of wind turned the stack of 17,000 containers into an unwanted sail.

“Keep her steady!” shouted the captain, according to people who heard the conversation on the bridge.

Minutes later the bow banged into the eastern wall of the canal, shuddering the ship and blocking traffic on the Suez Canal, one of the world’s most critical links in the global supply chain.

“We’re stuck big time,” said an officer on the bridge, according to the people who heard the talk there.

The ship’s operator, Taiwan’s Evergreen Group, declined to name the captain or other officers aboard the ship or make them available for comment. It couldn’t be determined whether the captain or one of the Egyptian pilots was steering the ship at the time of the crash.

As tugboats and dredgers work around the clock to dig out, partially refloat and move the ship out of the way, focus is now turning to how the calamity happened and who should be held responsible. The answer could have major repercussions on insurance claims by the multiple parties involved, and reverberate through the Egyptian leadership.

Re-RouteShipping companies with vessels idling in or near the Suez Canal are considering taking a detour around Africa. The Cape of Good Hope route is considerably longer and burns more fuel, making it less popular than the Suez Canal option.

Major world shipping routes

Cape of Good Hope route

Example: Singapore-Rotterdam, Netherlands

Cape of

Good

Hope

Sources: Jean-Paul Rodrigue, Hofstra University (global routes); Bimco (distance, voyage)

Navigation experts and engineers at the Suez Canal Authority, the body that operates the waterway, are investigating the crash. They are joined by the ship’s owner, Japan’s Shoei Kisen Kaisha Ltd. Claims adjusters for international insurance companies are flying in to check the site.

Shipping experts warn it could take days, if not weeks, before movement returns to normal.

People involved in the investigation, still in its initial stages, said it is focusing on a sandstorm and a roughly two-minute burst of wind that likely threw the vessel inexorably off course. The conduct of the ship’s captain and the canal authority are being inspected for any missteps, as is the potential for mechanical failure, according to those people. According to slides at a press conference Saturday, Egyptian authorities are also examining so-called “bank effects”—a dynamic in which large ships in shallow, narrow waters can be pushed and pulled by high- and low-pressure areas in the water.

“A burst of strong wind in a confined water space can rattle a ship,” said Fotis Pagoulatos, an Athens-based naval architect who has been part of salvage operations of other stuck vessels. “It’s like being in a tall building hit by strong air currents. You can feel the vibrations, but a ship is not planted in the ground with concrete and iron. It just floats and it can jolt to the point that you lose control.”

Some officials involved in the investigation have suggested that the Ever Given was speeding or overloaded, based on the way it got stuck in the canal. People close to the ship’s operator said traffic in the canal is so busy that picking up significant speed is impossible.

The blockage is the latest in a series of transportation crises to confront Egypt’s president, Abdel Fattah Al Sisi. The 2016 crash of an EgyptAir flight from Paris shook international confidence in the Egyptian government after French officials accused its investigators of obstructing the probe.

When The Wall Street Journal reported on the French judicial probe, EgyptAir and Egyptian government agencies didn’t respond to requests for comment. Egypt’s civil aviation ministry previously denied that the plane registered technical faults in the days before it crashed, as the French judicial probe claimed.

Mr. Sisi, a retired general turn politician who seized power in a coup eight years ago, hasn’t spoken publicly about the canal blockage, but he is receiving regular updates, according to Egyptian officials. They said initial results from a separate investigation ordered by Mr. Sisi indicated that the canal authority waited hours before closing the waterway, exacerbating the crisis by removing options for some ships to avoid the canal.

Suez Canal and Global Supply Chains What’s Wrong With Global Supply Chains and How It Affects You Egypt Expanded the Suez Canal. It Wasn’t Enough. Suez Canal Blockage Sends Asian Exporters Scrambling Energy Industry Grapples With Suez Canal Blockage Companies Consider Alternative Routes

Spokespersons for the canal authority, Mr. Sisi and the Egyptian government didn’t respond to calls and messages seeking comment.

Evergreen said Friday that a salvage team was continuing to clear sand and mud around the ship’s bow to free the vessel during high tide. Yukito Higaki, president of Imabari Shipbuilding Co., whose group of companies includes the ship’s owner, told a news conference in Japan that workers had hoped to dislodge the ship by Saturday.

Shipping operators involved in the logjam estimate $12 billion of cargo is on vessels stranded at other points along the 120-mile canal or idling just outside it. Avoiding the passageway by sailing around Africa can add two weeks and hundreds of thousands of dollars in freight costs per voyage. As a result, shipping and oil prices have risen, and the already-pressured logistics industry will likely face delays and extra costs.

For its part, the canal authority stands to lose some $15 million a day in revenue from tolls, according to official figures, a vital source of income for a country of 100 million people already reeling from the Covid-19 pandemic’s hit to tourism and remittances.

The Ever Given might also incur costly damages in the process of being pulled from where it is stuck.

If authorities ultimately conclude the captain was responsible, they could seize the vessel, secure blocked funds for its insurer and sue its owner for damages, according to Sarosh Zaiwalla, a lawyer who represents shippers in maritime disputes. Likewise, the vessel’s owner could claim Egyptian authorities acted irresponsibly by letting it enter the canal during a storm.

Springtime storms across the Middle East—known locally as “khamsin,” for the 50 days they tend to last—have in the past impeded military campaigns from Napoleon to Rommel. A technical official at the canal authority said the winds were moving south to north, the same direction as the ship.

It’s not uncommon for ships to sail through the canal despite bad weather. But in such a confined space, a sudden gust of wind can render the ship’s navigational system ineffective.

Some investigators have claimed a failure of navigational equipment could have caused the accident. But those who have been through the canal and others directly involved in the investigation said that explanation strains credulity, since steering through the channel relies largely on following the line of ships.

Yiannis Sgouras, a veteran Greek captain who has crossed the canal dozens of times, said all it requires is looking at and radioing with the ships immediately in front and behind. “In some parts of the canal when it is busy, it is like rush hour in Manhattan on a single lane,” he said.

Egyptian pilots board the vessels and help guide them through the canal. But once the ship got stuck, Egyptian authorities were hesitant to close the canal, allowing other vessels to enter the channel only to find themselves joining others in miles-long lines.

The captain of a European-operated boxship said he was informed of the canal’s closure 45 minutes after hitting the bottleneck.

Added the mechanic on a Greek-operated tanker, Manolis Kritikos: “We kept going until we hit the traffic jam.”

Write to Summer Said at summer.said@wsj.com, Costas Paris at costas.paris@wsj.com and Stephen Kalin at stephen.kalin@wsj.com

Sent from my iPad



To: TobagoJack who wrote (169943)3/27/2021 9:11:55 PM
From: sense  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 219578
 
Japanese ship with an Indian crew carrying Chinese cargo to the Netherlands...

The first story I heard was "a gust of wind" forced the ship off course... apparently true that there was a Khamsin sandstorm with winds >30 knots. Second story I heard was that the ship lost power...but that is denied by the management company and the story has been walked back. Seems it originated with an Egyptian shipping agent... who now pretends it never happened. It seems it was a different ship, behind the one that ran aground, that had a power outage, but no other issues associated with it,

Have been through a couple Egyptian sandstorms.. the "hot, dry" variety, like this, not nearly the worst of them. I find the wind and sandstorm story totally plausible, with the variable being in ">30 knots" meaning it might have been quite a bit over that... two or three times more not a crazy idea.

But, when it comes to looking for ulterior motives... I think the effort is mostly wasted. The idea of it being a "test run" doesn't really work... as all it would do is ensure development of a better capacity to deal with the same sort of problem next time... so if anyone wanted to use "shutting down the canal" as a threat... they'd be foolish to telegraph the move and at the same time help build capacity to resist it...

If it is being used that way... this event is the event that it is being used for in that way... for whatever reason.

I agree you could come up with reasons why all sorts of people might want to do this... but almost all of them would involve an improbably large element in self sacrifice...

The only one I'd think would have a reasonably plausible interest in doing it... and only benefit from it... would be Iran... leaving you to ponder how a Japanese ship and Indian crew would have been enlisted in an Iranian scheme to time this perfectly in relation to a totally random event like a sandstorm ?

Occam's razor wins the round... without it being a close shave.

The investigation will find the wind did it... probably because it did... but also because why make it harder than it has to be ? They'll throw a few rocks at the crew for things they could have done better... criticize the canal for having too much sand in it... promise to do better in the future... and move along.

Except, the salvage company is saying it might take "weeks".. ?



To: TobagoJack who wrote (169943)3/28/2021 4:58:04 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 219578
 
IMHO after being in the region of the Suez Canal for well over a month in 1973 war, it was pure human error.
The wind blasts and lack of visibility with inexperience of the crew + filling of the canal with sand from the storm, may cause it.
Sands banks are very unstable as proven in 1973 when I crossed the canal and before when I was in 1971 on the canal shores.
I am certain that part of the blame is on Egypt by not properly maintaining the canal, sand can fill up the canal very quickly leaving little room for maneuver from experience when attacking the Third Army in October/November 1973