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To: Rarebird who wrote (2016)8/9/2021 10:03:18 PM
From: Sun Tzu  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 10522
 
But what a lot of people are missing is that there are a lot of bottlenecks due to delta, of course, but also due to floods, port congestions, and a lot of other things.

Once the congestions are resolved, likely early in 2022, you will have a sudden inventory build up as all the orders suddenly arrive. Which will cause a recession because you suddenly won't need to produce much for a couple of months. And depending on what is happening in the rest of the economy, there could be an out sized reaction.

I am not saying this is what will happen. I am saying that it might happen and the market is pricing in the possibilities.



To: Rarebird who wrote (2016)8/10/2021 1:42:05 AM
From: Lee Lichterman III  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 10522
 
I'm curious why you expect a rotation to small caps with rising bond yields. Seems to me the small caps have more debt so would be impacted by rising rates more than large caps.