Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Disk Drive Sector Discussion Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Stitch who wrote (2450)	2/8/1998 10:01:00 AM
From: Z Analyzer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9256

Stitch, I understand Quantum's next generation Fireball is 2.5 GB/platter, trailing MXTR at 2.8 and IBM at 3.2. This sounds like a significant shortfall since a 3 platter drive won't hit the psychologically important 8 GB per drive. Do we know for a fact that QNTM is still 2.5 and what the timing is.

To: Stitch who wrote (2450)	2/12/1998 6:06:00 AM
From: Z Analyzer	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 9256

Finally pulled the plug on a big Quantum position, alot going back to '94 and '95 after talking with two of the more influential industry analysts. Points which swayed me: -No sign of any restraint by the Koreans, Fujitsu or IBM -No substantial improvement in pricing or inventories. -IBM to double sales into distribution (I don't know what the current base is). -Fujitsu gunning after QNTM as number 3 high end supplier while -Quantum's entire generation of new high end expected to continue losses at nearly current horrendous levels until next generation hits. -May become more difficult technologically to compete in high end against IBM-like notebooks. -QNTM next gen Fireball at 2.5GB/platter vs MXTR at 2,8 and IBM at 3.2. IBM to have 4 GB by year end. -Maxtor now supposedly biggest seller to Compaq and Dell? -one belived QNTM's production restraint might not be entirely voluntary, which stuck me as inconceivable but didn't pursue. -one concurred with me that 100 GB DLT seems to have slipped in timing. Company now saying mid-99. Had been end 88 cal. -Concerned that with seven mid-range tape products slated for roughly same time, success by even one could impact dlt. SEG,IBM, HP alliance and Exabyte all targeting faster transfer rares than next DLT (15 and 12 MB/sec respectively). Does agree that difficult to bring the se products out on time and talk intended to take some steam out of DLT. Other comments- -WDC high end profitable due to lack of current competition, but is not a low cost product. -In past cycles, these stocks have sold down to book value ($6 for WDC). At any rate, now that I'm out , stock will undoubtable rise.

To: Stitch who wrote (2450)	2/13/1998 4:26:00 AM
From: Z Analyzer	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9256

Lawrence and Stitch, Basically, I had too big a position in QNTM to be able to stomach the stock going back to 18 or 20. I guess I also felt the tech rally is not really based on strong fundamentals and that I didn't care to be in these stocks when March qtr earnings warnings begin for other tech companies and those impacted by Asia. Hopefully the disks won't miss their already low expectations, but I do expect a HTCH miss and that the weak Asian currencies are playing a big role in their low production figures. One analyst felt they had lost significant market share, that customers felt TSA too expensive and stock price too high. The other felt we wouldn't see much pullback in price even with another earnings disappointment. Not sure what to do with the cash at this point. (Any ideas?) Will watch HTCH for significant pullback in price or pick up in production. I think the straw that broke the camel's back for me was hearing that the high end drives (Atlas III, Viking II) were a quarter late to market. I don't have the patience to wait a year to see if QNTM's next gen is the first ever to be successful. Quantum unsuccessfully produced high end drives well prior to the Digital acquisition, so the history of losses in both high end and heads now runs for many years. I was also very discouraged to hear that QNTM's next Fireball was 2.5 per platter, although this info has been debated here. I'm surprised they haven't announced the product yet with Maxtor talking about their next several generations. In summary, it seemed all the reasons I owned Quantum in August had changed very materially (even my beloved DLT had at least temporary setbacks) and I had promised myself not to own these things thru the next spring/summer correction.