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Non-Tech : Income Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Elroy who wrote (49119)1/18/2023 12:57:14 PM
From: Affinity4Investing6 Recommendations

Recommended By
brehm233
dealmakr
FL_Guy
lumpygravy
research1234

and 1 more member

  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 52119
 
Re: Ok, for anyone interested in Income Investing, I''m curious why you WOU

Why?

Between Yahoo Finance, Nasdaq, and Seeking Alpha, we can see that UAN has had negative earnings #'s in ~4 out of the last 5 years (thru 2021) and they just reported a loss last quarter.

The dividend history has also got huge gaps in it of when they didn't pay. I can't SWAN with this stuff:

cvrpartners.gcs-web.com

I try to not invest in areas where multiple 'large country' governing parties have essentially declared war on companies and their products.

I don't follow them, but at first glance - those items pop out. This would be in the speculative sandbox.

That would be my "why" I wouldn't touch them - but all the best to those who are invested with them.



To: Elroy who wrote (49119)1/18/2023 5:36:12 PM
From: maverick615 Recommendations

Recommended By
Affinity4Investing
FL_Guy
research1234
walterenergy
xerty

  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 52119
 
Since UAN is a variable distribution MLP, it is going to pay unit owners it's free cash flows in the form of quarterly distributions. I think it easily pays $35 in 2023. The unit price today is about $105. So it's yield in 2023 is going to be about 33%.
Like clockwork, you pop up once a quarter or so pumping UAN. You say you think it easily pays $35 in 2023. Here is what you said other times on here:

5/3/22: Fertilizer prices are up from the prices realized in Q1.Volumes sold should increase in Q2 since Q2 is "planting season".UAN easily pays more than $10 and perhaps as high as $20 per unit in Q2.
UAN paid $2.26 in Q2 at the end of May. Perhaps you meant Q3 as they did pay 10.05 at the end of August, the low end of your estimate. I will give you the benefit of the doubt on this one

8/23/22 - I think by January 2023 UAN is easily $150 or more, maybe $200, and it will pay $40 or more in calendar year 2023. It seems highly undervalued today to me.
UAN is now trading at $102 and paid $1.770 in Q4 at the end of November. BIG MISS
8/24/22 - I disagree. All of us should have all our eggs in the one best stock. Figuring out what that is is the hard part!! Diversification (in my opinion) means you might as well buy an S&P Index fund and go fishing.
So you were arguing against diversification and putting all your eggs into UAN's basket on 8/24. By the way, on 8/24 UAN was trading at $132. It is now trading at $102. You would have collected the $1.770 dividend in November while losing $30 per share on the price. Not a smart way to make money Another BIG MISS



To: Elroy who wrote (49119)1/18/2023 11:46:20 PM
From: Privately5 Recommendations

Recommended By
KEN2CWL
maverick61
nicewatch
research1234
santafecb

  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 52119
 
Re: Ok, for anyone interested in Income Investing, I''m curious why you WOU

Hi Elroy,

Heaven knows I made a LOT of money flipping UAN last year (as I detailed to you in my post last summer). One of the best plays I made all year.

However, I would not recommend UAN to anyone as an "income investment".

I realize you feel a need to come on this board almost every quarter to promote UAN, but IMHO it is a wildly volatile company in a volatile market. Appropriate for speculative investment perhaps (which is how I viewed my investment), but not a real "income investment".

Perhaps you define "income investment" differently from most people on this board. I think most folks look at an income investment as something that is relatively stable/low risk and that pays solid, predictable income over time. That is the opposite of UAN on almost every count. It is far from stable, not low risk (as evidenced by all the years of losses/non-payments), and very unpredictable.

So, I am happy to have made a lot of money on UAN (and I hope you did too), but I would never recommend it as an income investment.

[full disclosure - I sold almost all of my UAN units (the ones I re-purchased last summer) a couple of months ago for another profit of almost $35/unit after holding just a few months. Again, not bragging - just acknowledging that I did speculate in UAN several times last year and made a LOT of money at it - but I wouldn't consider it an "income investment".]



To: Elroy who wrote (49119)1/19/2023 7:34:20 AM
From: RJCogburn64  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 52119
 
Why would an investor NOT own this?

Well, (and I do own a bit) the simplest answer IMO is that it has disappointed so many, many times....