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Strategies & Market Trends : The Art of Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sun Tzu who wrote (6302)	2/3/2023 3:37:36 PM
From: robert b furman	1 Recommendation Recommended By Lou Weed Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10690

Hi Sun, Makes great sense. Over this weekend the European sanctions on shipping Russian oil come into play. A man on Bloomberg said it won't immediately become impactful. Russia has secured a lot of ships. They are mostly smaller and not design for long runs. As they load up and begin a trip much longer than the usual trip to Europe they will be on the sea longer for both directions. As this puts many ships on the longer trips, it will use up the available non European boats and slowly cap out Russia's ability to sell oil. So being patient seems to be the correct posture. Thanks for sharing! Very generous of you. You encapsulate what makes SI a great place to learn from. KUDOS! Bob

To: Sun Tzu who wrote (6302)	2/4/2023 11:44:44 AM
From: Sun Tzu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10690

LOL!

To: Sun Tzu who wrote (6302)	2/17/2023 9:36:28 AM
From: Sun Tzu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10690

Updating the oil chart. As I said in the post I am replying to, it was not the time to load up on oil. Now the chart is a bit more interesting. There seems to be a head and shoulder pattern forming. IF it breaks down, then oil will likely head towards 61 - 66 range. Presently, I think 62.5 would be a good place to buy because of the need to refill the SPR and China reopening. BUT, if at that time the global economy is believed to enter a bad recession soon, then oil may fall further. Otherwise, it will be a buy...and of course it is always possible that it won't break support and just bounces off of it. One last thing - we're entering the range in oil prices where the oil company stocks should begin to follow the oil price. So far they have been mostly disconnected from the spot price. Think of XLE as a very far out futures contract on oil.