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Non-Tech : Kirk's Market Thoughts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: robert b furman who wrote (17626)	1/3/2024 9:37:56 AM
From: Kirk ©	Respond to of 27007

Happy New Year Bob! You have to start wondering when the race to add capacity turns into a glut... The old "bigger they are the harder they fall" mentality. Global semiconductor capacity to reach record 30 million wafers per month in 2024, SEMI says Jessie Shen, DIGITIMES Asia, Taipei Wednesday 3 January 2024 Global semiconductor capacity is expected to increase by 6.4% in 2024 to top the 30 million wafers per month (wpm) mark for the first time after rising 5.5% to 29.6 wpm in 2023, according to SEMI. Capacity expansions in leading-edge logic and foundry, applications such as generative AI and high-performance computing (HPC), and a resurgence in chip end-demand will drive 2024 growth, SEMI indicated. Capacity expansion stalled in 2023 due to weakening semiconductor market demand and the resulting inventory correction. "Resurgent market demand and increased government incentives worldwide are powering an upsurge in fab investments in key chipmaking regions and the projected 6.4% rise in global capacity for 2024," said Ajit Manocha, SEMI President and CEO. "The heightened global attention on the strategic importance of semiconductor manufacturing to national and economic security is a key catalyst of these trends." China to lead industry expansion According to SEMI, China is expected to increase its share of global semiconductor production boosted by government funding and other incentives. Chinese chip manufacturers are forecast to start 18 projects in 2024, with capacity increasing by 13% year-on-year to 8.6 million wpm. Taiwan is expected to be the second-largest semiconductor capacity region in 2024, with a 4.2% increase to 5.7 million wpm. Five fabs are set to begin operations in the region in 2024. SEMI says Korea will continue to rank third in chip capacity, with 5.1 million wpm in 2024 - a 5.4% increase as one fab comes online. Japan is expected to place fourth at 4.7 million wpm in 2024, a capacity increase of 2% as it starts operations of four fabs. The SEMI report also shows the Americas increasing chip capacity by 6% year-on-year to 3.1 million wpm with six new fabs in 2024. Europe and the Middle East Mideast will increase capacity by 3.6% to 2.7 million wpm in 2024 when four new fabs begin operations. With four new fab projects, Southeast Asia is expected to boost capacity by 4% to 1.7 million wpm in 2024. Foundry segment continues strong growth According to SEMI, foundry suppliers are forecast to rank as the top semiconductor equipment buyers, increasing capacity to a record 10.2 million wpm in 2024. The memory segment slowed capacity expansion in 2023 due to weak demand in consumer electronics such as PCs and smartphones. DRAM capacity is predicted to increase by 5% to four million wpm in 2024, while 3D NAND installed capacity will rise 2% to 3.7 million wpm, SEMI said. In the discrete and analog segments, vehicle electrification remains the driver of capacity expansion. Discrete capacity is forecast to grow by 7% to 4.4 million wpm in 2024, while analog capacity is projected to increase by 10% to 2.4 million wpm.