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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Grommit who wrote (74736)	12/30/2023 9:25:07 PM
From: Paul Senior	3 Recommendations Recommended By Lance Bredvold Sisyphus Spekulatius Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78842

Very nice long-term results! Especially risk-adjusted. Impressive. As I've said several times-- I suspect your performance record is either the best, or among the best, of all of us (including Mike Burry) who have been here. Jmo. Not to slight anyone else here who may have an excellent track record too. Obviously I don't know how others have actually done over time. Regardless of any ranking nonsense, I believe what's important or relevant here is paying attention to what Grommit is buying or not. That can be helpful. Has been to me anyway. Grommit, I appreciate your being here, and welcome to the RMD club!

To: Grommit who wrote (74736)	12/31/2023 7:09:27 AM
From: Harshu Vyas	3 Recommendations Recommended By Lance Bredvold petal Spekulatius Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78842

Since we're doing this and since I want to be transparent, I finished my first full year down 25%. All in all, I'm not that disappointed given that I was down around 40% in March/early April. Have learnt big lessons about leverage in small-cap companies and changing expectations surrounding mid-cap companies. I suppose in a weird way the lessons compensate for the losses - provided I don't make them again. And in the last few months I've been considerably better at it - although, if I'm being raw, Fed cuts, falling energy prices and general speculation have no doubt aided me. As for 10%, it works if you have something to lose and if it's just passive income. Atm, I'm trying my strength and figuring out the do's and don'ts with the market. When I feel I understand the basics and I start to put my parent's hard earned money (i.e savings) into the market, perhaps my expectations will have changed. Pocket money would really be spent on clubbing, going out etc - I've never done that so if I lose it all, I'll live. At least I can say I tried. And if I fail, maybe the S&P 500 is the right choice because I wouldn't want to waste my time looking at companies when I could do nothing and achieve around 9%/yr until I die. BUT, the reason why I think 50% is possible is because I made some terrible decisions and with some minor tweaks, 50% was on the table this year. Firstly, I kept too many stocks in the portfolio this year (average was 6) - should be one or two. Secondly, I sold winning companies to fund my losing companies - does that even make sense?? Thirdly, I kept way to much cash on the side doing nothing - year average was about 30% of cash was uninvested. Why? In case the market crashed. With a small portfolio, at least 80% of the portfolio should be invested at all times. Fourthly, I was stubborn at the wrong times and humble at the wrong times. Fifthly, I chose companies that were too complicated. Broadcasting, for example, is not predictable. I have no way of accurately forecasting earnings or cash flows. Coupled with leverage, I deserved to do worse. And yet, by some miracle, I only found myself down 25% at year-end. I know 2023 was a brilliant year but that means that in a more normal year there will be more value to be found which means that I probably will have better choices! Call this naivety, perhaps, but I still think 50% is on next year.