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Biotech / Medical : VVUS: VIVUS INC. (NASDAQ) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RT who wrote (5595)	2/22/1998 2:19:00 PM
From: DR. BOND	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 23519

RT.......Thanx for your "MIT Algorithm Analysis"! However, you fail to take into consideration several factors, most notibly "supply constraints". I choose not to debate this refill issue, so I will end this post. Take Care, DB

To: RT who wrote (5595)	2/22/1998 2:20:00 PM
From: blankmind	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 23519

RT, - You're basically saying that Vivus is a fraud. That if MUSE was successful, that there would be at least 20 or 30,000 refills a week. And that MuSE is a failure. Is this correct? - If you remember back in 11/97 or 12/97, this exact same issue came up. And the pro-fraud crowd backed up its assertions by pointing out that the factories were going on idle for Christmas; a line was cannibalized; and the new factory wasn't really needed in the first place because the product wasn't selling. And they went thru the refill scripts just like you're doing. - Lo & behold, in Jan '98, Vivus came out with results for the 4th 1/4. And despite all these problems, they did $32.9 mill in sales. And had profits of $5.8 mill. The stock went up 50%. And now it's at 12 1/2; as new questions arise about MCA approval. And when these questions are resolved; the stock will move way higher. - I guess I'm asking you so what? What does your analysis mean exactly? Are you saying that the financials are bogus? Or MUSE doesn't work? What exactly are you saying. Out.

To: RT who wrote (5595)	2/23/1998 2:30:00 PM
From: LoLoLoLita	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 23519

>>As you can see we should have a REFILL rate of approximately >>40,000 per week. Instead we have a refill rate of only 4,800. >>This is a large discrepancy, and can only mean >>one thing, dissatisfaction among muse users. RT, I'm sorry but I have to butt in here a little late. You (and many others) are reading WAY too much into this weekly scrip data. The reason is that what is called a "new" scrip is COMPLETELY indistinguishable from (1) scrips to wholly new MUSE users (MUSE virgins); (2) previous MUSE users who have used up their allowed refills and gone back to a doctor (maybe a different doctor!) to get a new scrip; and (3) previous MUSE users who haven't used up their refills but want to switch pharmacies (maybe trying mail order), and who also went back for a "new" scrip. The data just does not have the level of detail needed to do what you are trying to do: namely, estimate the level of satisfaction of MUSE users. Regards, David