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Non-Tech : Kirk's Market Thoughts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: robert b furman who wrote (25838)	9/9/2025 9:40:21 AM
From: Elroy	1 Recommendation Recommended By Kirk © Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 26438

Semi's sure have huge seasonality - BIG dip every 3 to 5 years apart. I think you mean cyclicality - that is ..... boom periods, followed by excess capital spending, followed by excess supply and collapsing prices, followed by market absorption of the supply until OH NO it's now too little and we again got a boom period. Repeat. This usually happens in DRAM and NAND memory, since they are subject to the capital spending increasing production capacity issue more than most semis. Now that the world is down to 3 DRAM makers, that market is much more profitable and the remaining players do not try to increase supply as much as they used, instead they try to make profits. NAND has 6 global players, and still goes through boom - bust periods (right now it is emerging from a bust, NAND should do well for the next few quarters). TSMC being the only global company able to make leading edge foundry eliminates the boom - bust in foundry because no foundry makes "too much" leading edge capacity in order to kill off competitors. Instead, TSMC makes what amount it thinks appropriate, and it all sells out in 2-4 minutes. So the cyclicality in the other segments of semis (other than memory and foundry) is driven by supply chain cycles - distributors order too many PCs or cell phones, and they don't sell, and so that causes the cycle. Or economic changes, everything slows down, so semis slow down with the economy. AI of course doesn't slow down because every big tech boy is spending more and more doing God knows what trying to artificially do something none of us understand (keep us on Facebook longer? determine in advance whether we want to hold the onion on our Big Mac?). The interesting thing about the past year is that the different segments of semis (analog, auto, industrial, consumer, AI, datacenter) have all been at different stages of the normal "cycle" for different reasons. For example, I'd say right now -PCs are exploding higher compared to H1 2025 -Autos have bottomed, but are not picking up anything like one is used to from previous semi cycles. -Industrial is in the "move higher from the bottom (last Xmas)" part of the cycle, but the tariff confusion is causing the uplift to be less violent than history would indicate. -AI has been exploding higher for about three years, some think it's near the peak, but they're just guessing -Cell phones, I got no idea -HBM memory has been exploding higher for two years, and shows no signs of slowing (it's moving with AI) -DRAM is a steady profitable grower, not even very cyclical -NAND memory is finally moving off the bottom and the next 2-4 quarters should be pretty good for NAND In total, I would say most segments are moving up, so the key forecast is when a segment (or perhaps the entire industry) slows down.

To: robert b furman who wrote (25838)	9/9/2025 9:50:44 AM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 26438

Hi Bob, 25 years ago it was the PC cycle and sales collapsed after "everyone" bought a new PC with updated software to survive the Y2K date change. That aligned with the collapse of the internet bubble where companies that exchanged ads with each other and called it "revenue" went bankrupt and their office chairs and PCs were sold at scrap rates here in the Silicon Valley. Today you can get a very good, powerful Dell laptop for $1400 at Costco (I got $200 off and I've seen it as much as $300 off earlier this year before tariffs and now it is back to full price.) Cheap ones to surf the net and read email are $500 or less. Probably people buy new cell phones more often with similar prices. My smart OLED LG TV is "so old" it shows a bit of CNBC burn-in that I notice sometimes and more importantly, the latest ESPN+ app (that I get for free with either my DISH Sports package or YouTube subscription) doesn't show up so I had to watch the CAL bears win on Saturday using my laptop and tablet. So... it may be time to buy a new smart TV... $1500 to $3000 for a good 65" OLED at Costco I think. My X3 Auto is fine even if old from 2011, but my GF's Lexus ES 300 is brand new and has a decent amount of electronics in it plus a small tablet sized display. My new range has Wi-Fi to let me turn on the oven while away... Data Centers for AI are new. What is next? Medical implants? Maybe Sun can think of others. So we've grown the market from the PC cycle to cycles for PCs Cell Phones Smart TVs Autos Appliances Data Centers? Medical implants Personal Robots? Remember playing "Crack the whip" as a kid? I think the PC cycle has grown to a very, very long whip.