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Biotech / Medical : VVUS: VIVUS INC. (NASDAQ) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JFD who wrote (5778)	3/3/1998 5:40:00 PM
From: Colby	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 23519

JFD, I like the encouragement. The only problem that I can see is the news came out after market close (I think). JFD is right though. There is a reason this stock went from 40 to 10 and its name is PFE. Notice, the company said full regulatory approval by MAY, that includes FDA. What about just the MCA? That should still come in the next few weeks unless we hit yet another obstacle. I think it a little odd all of a sudden the company comes out and says PFE is going to hurt them. They have been saying all along PFE will help the market w/o any indication of slow down. Why now? The lawsuit? or perhaps they decide to put every possible piece of bad news on the table just to get it out of the way. I have no idea. Any predictions for tomorrow. Colby P.S. Hey frostman, what the h--- did you say the company in regards to its PR? (gg)

To: JFD who wrote (5778)	3/3/1998 9:20:00 PM
From: Don Dunlap	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23519

JFD. It is reassuring that the news came out midday and the stock held up. This thread is great to find out things like that. I saw 4:07 on the release and figured tomorrow would be a massacre. He noted that the potentially bad news comes despite the fact that Vivus first quarter sales of its MUSE treatment for male impotence will come in at 1.8 million units -- the same as in the fourth quarter of 1997. My concern is: How do you go from a 70% gross margin to losing money on the same units sold? This does not make sense. I realize some of the old inventory was expensed before Vivus obtained FDA approval. I also realize marketing costs will increase. But what hope does it give investors if Vivus fails to turn a profit when sales are good? What happens when Viagra takes a chunk out of Vivus sales? Another concern: What happens when that unsold inventory makes it back into the Vivus warehouse? Vivus books revenue when the product is shipped. I believe distributors/drugstores have the right to return expired product. Has Vivus properly recorded the liability for future unsold product? Or are we going to have another disaster when all that product gets returned (best case scenario only the lower ineffective dosages will be returned). A Vivus spokeswoman meanwhile linked the forecast for a first quarter loss to the fact that Vivus is selling more product overseas and at lower prices, because those customers are assuming the costs of marketing MUSE there. I don't understand. Vivus is selling more product overseas at lower prices. OK so far. I would expect that profit would decline, but not go negative. Is Vivus trying to establish market share by selling the product to Astra below cost? Perhaps the costs have risen because Vivus has a ton of inventory in the new plant which they are unable to sell until FDA/MCA approvals. Will Vivus expense that inventory this quarter or recognize the expense when the product is shipped? Maybe an accountant can answer. For Vivus to take a loss on good sales (on a unit basis) means expenses have skyrocketed somewhere or the revenue for the overseas product is drastically below that for the US. My guess is Vivus is selling the product to Astra for 50% of its retail price. What does that mean for Vivus's future? It doesn't do Vivus any good to take over the world if they lose money on each sale.