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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Pancho Villa who wrote (4207)	3/5/1998 8:18:00 PM
From: Bald Man from Mars	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 18691

Pancho: You are scaring me by telling me that those money managers could not even add 2 + 2, I guess that is why everyone needs a fancy calculator, do they know how to use slide rule, or have they ever seen an 8 track ??? I guess I have to change the way I attack this market, I have to start going insane in order to be rewarded !!!

To: Pancho Villa who wrote (4207)	3/5/1998 8:35:00 PM
From: Eric Klein	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 18691

Pancho, A few more down days and the junk stocks will hit the skids. I think you've got a bunch of momentum junkies who are dyeing for a fix. When these junk stocks start really falling, they'll fall fast. I don't think that they can survive more than a few days of declines. The question is whether there will be a sharp enough correction to flush these guys out. There's been a lot of sector rotation lately. Unfortunately, two sectors which are unbelievably hyped right now are Internet and y2k. BTW have you checked out TALK? P/E = 300, P/S = 6.3 Gave AOL $100M to hawk their ATT leased long distance service. I've located $30M in their 401's, but $70M is missing in action. TALK used to sell their "services" through telemarketing, but now depends solely on AOL. They probably got some business at first, but after a while AOL ads must lose effectiveness. Also, ATT is warning about slamming (changing customer's long distance carrier without permission) and threatening to end selling of time to guilty parties. Are they pointing the finger at TALK? I don't know, but TALK responded, so it sounds like they feel a little threat there. Also, they are trying to sell the company. Who's going to buy a company whose only real asset is an advertising agreement with AOL? If you've got some time on your hands, I'd really appreciate a professional opinion on their P&L. Where did that pesky $70M go?

To: Pancho Villa who wrote (4207)	3/6/1998 1:48:00 PM
From: Marconi	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

Hello Mr. Villa: OFF SUBJECT >> the MBA program with the most quantitatively inclined students in the country<< correction the MBA program with perhaps ONE of the most quantitatively inclined student bodies in the country. U of Chi-town with their CRISP and other quantitative methods, plus their rigorous application process that tends to favor innate quants, although the school is tiny compared to its many East Coast sisters, it is known as a very highly quantitative school. MBA students are only 1 to 3 classes away from learning and using stochastic statistics to arrive at pricing models for options and other securities, and their statistics section runs into the rigor of integral calculus to determine greatest likelihood estimators after 3 stat classes. Most of the students are required to take two or three of these classes. The point is that Chicago's reputation as delivering quants is firmly grounded. (Can you tell I'm a GSB grad in Finance and Statistics??). Realistically, the leading schools have a history of ups and downs and ins and outs of greater strengths and weaknesses over the years. It's a mixed bag of tricks without the qualifiers of class and year. Best regards, mdr PS glad to see a fellow engineer--I went the ChE route rather than wire-head--I'll just have to keep at juggling those electrons to keep various atoms into associations rather than keeping current--har har har