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Technology Stocks : Compaq -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Eddie Kim who wrote (20086)	3/6/1998 7:44:00 PM
From: KAD	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 97611

Eddie and others: Cheer up, look for the silver lining in this cloud. 1. HP has substantially higher margin businesses to pre-announce, and Packard Bell is basically still a Quasi-private company. 2. My thoughts on this mess are that Compaq finally could not parlay this inventory from one quarter to the next and had to bite the bullet. That is good! In a sense. The air is out of the bag - the channel stuffing story was out there since the 4Q and it looks like it probably was true and it carried over. Maybe CPw felt they could ride it. Now that expectations have been lowered the bottom will be stabilized and the stock will move up from a base here (definitely > 20). 3. The last time time Compaq pre-announced was two years ago in the 1st Q and my guess is that they will probably overstate on the bad side so they can deliver from here on. Remember Mason was not even on board then and has not gone thru that experience with CPQ. 4. What about the DEC deal. This has to be something the Company can control and my take is that CPQ will probably break all records for mergers (if any exist). The Ex-Dec'ers - Mason, Rose etc. will deliver here! 5. To summarize my take is CPQ's problem is a 4Q carryover because CPq did not get their BTO in gear. Intel, Asia etc are all other issues. And the Channel we are talking about is the desk top Commercial only! A bread and butter channel but all others are excelling including retail! 6. This to me looks like the buying opportunity we saw in 1991 when CPQ was at 22 before 3 splits ( 3-1, 5-2 & 2-1) Hang In There KAD

To: Eddie Kim who wrote (20086)	3/6/1998 7:52:00 PM
From: Wowzer	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 97611

Thats what I said about SEG and WDC. Can't get any worse well it did. The similarities are striking. Both make commodities products with no real brand preference (granted the box makers have a little more brand preference). Last May Seagate started warning, but WDC kept saying everything is OK. So WDC shot up to 54. Everybody was fat dumb and happy. Well guess what, a disk drive is disk drive is a disk drive. And sure enough the problems that Seagate felt hit WDC hard just a little later. Now WDC trades at 17. I see the same thing happening to Dell. Right now the industry leader (CPQ) says they are having problems but Dell comes out right out and says they are doing fine no problems (bullshit). A computer is a computer is a computer and if CPQ is experiencing inventory build up you can bet Dell will start feeling the pain as well. If you are the IS manager of a company do you really care if you buy a Dell or CPQ? No! especially when CPQ starts dumping their inventory. Dell has got a looong way to go. At $50 Dell is still over priced. Someone who has lived through the WDC hell Rory