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Technology Stocks : Check Point Software (CHKP) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Marty who wrote (1807)	3/17/1998 12:44:00 PM
From: Frank	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 7150

Marty, I want attacks. I'm looking at all the, "Facts," and I just don't get it. A friend of mine said, "Where else is the money going to go?" This seemed like a reasonable argument, but does not apply in deflationary times. So what's the upside potential? CHKPF can get away with having a PE of 50, its got outragious double digit growth. What about GE? Do they deserve a high PE? I don't think so. Tell me why the market will continue to go up. Give me some facts. I look around and I've seen PC prices come down, I see Burger King consistently in a price war with McDonalds, I see costs for VCR's, Stereos, coming down. I've seen price presure on Firewall's. I see coming competition from Barnes and Noble to Amazon which is slowly erroding margins. CHKPF and a number of companies have a big cushion, but perception in the market appears to be changing. I'm trying to conserve capital, give me the reasoning on the upside and I'll be happy to listen. To date, nobody has given me that, so please share your insights.

To: Marty who wrote (1807)	3/18/1998 9:02:00 AM
From: Frank	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 7150

Marty, Another fact: This is an S&P summary on GAP: "The company announced that earnings for the fourth quarter and full year would be below the prior year periods due to an intensely competitive environment; the fourth quarter is the second quarter of lower year-over-year performance. Margins have been hurt by higher levels of promotional spending, food price deflation, and lower vendor support." You mentioned that the rules have changed. I would refer you to two books. "Extraordenary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds," by Charles Makay, and "Reminissances of a Stock Operator." The only changes we've seen in the market are: - Information availability - Order execution In my view everything else has remained the same. I've shared my earnings estimates with Jay via e-mail and would encourage Analog and roger to rethink their long term positions. Also, I've moderated what I feel will be the number on the correction which should be about 700 points, over the next month. If anybody can find flaws in my thesis please share your critisisms, they are appreciated and help to reinforce my beliefs that the market is going down.