Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: FJB who wrote (17924)	3/19/1998 11:01:00 PM
From: jtechkid	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

to all i don't think anybody on this thread thinks amat is a bad company. i myself personally have made a lot more money on the long side than short side of amat. as i've said before i believe amat will trade over 100 by the year 2000. the key is people trying to say short term -6-9months amat and other sem's are going to have problems and be prepared for it. the bulls would make it like its rosy and amat will keep going up where history shows the stock is quite volitile on the upside and the downside. thats it. everyday the news is getting worse and history repeats itself amat has lot more downside than upside. thats it , nobody should take anything personal.

To: FJB who wrote (17924)	3/19/1998 11:35:00 PM
From: Jerome	Respond to of 70976

Your math is correct. If on an annual basis an industry grows at a 38% rate then a .93 % BTB for any given time period would mean prosperity for AMAT until we are all pushing up daisies. The problem with all BTB data is that its like trying to drive a car foreward by looking in the rear view mirror. Some one posted that the BTB has been in decline for the past seven months and that is one of the longest periods on record. Ian and Brian are correct in one scientific respect. All things eventually revert to the norm. And the norm is double digit growth. As to when things will get better. How about two months from now. The ASIA crises is almost seven months old and for the most part it will be resolved by the first of July. (eg. Mexico was to have taken 2 to 3 years to straighten out) One year later its ancient history. I have posted previously that if Korea and Japan don't straighten out their financial problems the new leadership in this area will fall to China, Taiwan, and Europe who now have the resources to become major players. No matter who wins out AMAT will do very well. As Ian has posted before those with the best technology and the deepest pockets will do the best. Afterthoughts: Perhaps there should be two threads: AMAT++++ and AMAT--- we all know where the doom and gloom forecasters (lets call them agnostics) would hang out. Jerome

To: FJB who wrote (17924)	3/20/1998 12:15:00 AM
From: Big Bucks	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Bob, If I recall correctly, a debate is a defense of ones position using arguments that support that position. I think that the pendulum swings both ways on this topic. Bulls only see the positives, bears only see the negatives, that is what makes a market. They both have vision but their investment goals vs rewards are different. The realist/opportunist tries to weigh both sides of the argument but can be a bull one day and a bear the next due to the information available. Just my opinion, BB