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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mandinga who wrote (5362)	3/22/1998 10:04:00 PM
From: Pancho Villa	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 18691

MMs are doing all they can to hold the market up through the end of the month but sooner rather than later some smart guy is gonna want to get out ahead of others to lock in profits and then... Pancho these guys are not that stupid. They know the game has turned into a pyramid scheme sort of a game based on finding a sucker that pays you a bit more than you paid for a share. I hope considering earnings/cash flows as the basic factor in driving valuations will return and then the market will recover its sanity.

To: Mandinga who wrote (5362)	3/22/1998 10:08:00 PM
From: Pancho Villa	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 18691

Any one knows when the next federal reserve meeting takes place? I doubt it but it would be nice to see stocks go up on a rate hike. Someone will come out with a creative reason on why this would be good for the market: A rate hiker would curb infaltion expectations and thus drive down long term rates and raise stock prices. Pancho

To: Mandinga who wrote (5362)	3/22/1998 10:09:00 PM
From: Lazlo Pierce	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 18691

I think the key will be to watch the 30 Year bond rate. One can make a case (and indeed many have), that interest rates in the 5 - 5 3/4% rate support higher valuations. In fact with low oil, and the current "new paradigm", many have predicted rates below 5%. However... with real GDP growth still exceeding 4%, and the labor market tightening, with pay rising, the bond may see rising oil prices as very threatening. If the bond goes below 6.25% we will see a substantial (maybe back below 8000) correction. If the bond starts drifting toward 7% again, watch out below. In other words, keep an eye on the bond. Dave