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Technology Stocks : Adaptec (ADPT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Starowl who wrote (1322)	3/24/1998 8:18:00 AM
From: Mark	Respond to of 5944

Starowl, I don't know if you've discovered the following pages, but I find them very useful (and relevant) - beta.nasdaq.com; (Note that immediately after I posted this, I tried the above and it didn't seem to link. The site is the Beta Nasdaq site and has lots of good info. If the above doesn't link it is worth chasing manually. Go to the site. Get an INFOQUOTE, and select Analysts (I think)). The current market mood is being affected by a number of warnings and downward revisions. The Quantum announcement last night was a big one, and not at all positive. The current trend in ADPT earnings estimates is downward - probably in anticipation of more bad news about the general state of the market. Click on the "View Forecasts" button at the above site and you can see the details of the revisions. There is also a wide deviation in estimates for the periods, which suggests that some analysts still need to update their figures. If the trend in revisions is downwards, then presumably the mean estimates will continue to decline. Should this occur, it is difficult to predict whether this will adversely affect the price. How much have people anticipated this, and how much is already factored into the price ? In addition, perhaps many people are already taking the longer term view ? (No - I am not softening - I still stand by my poll entry !) FWIW - I got burned on WDC and APM last year - not as badly as many - but it HURT. It was a key learning experience. Armed with a much better understanding (I hope) I nearly bought QNTM at 19 in Dec, but defered because I thought that 16 would be the right price. Maybe I will now get the chance. I wonder when Slob will complete his ADPT research - I am waiting with interest. Mark