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To: Marc Newman who wrote (1302)3/25/1998 11:17:00 AM
From: Benjamin Ostrom  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 1648
 
The real question I have is what has fundamentally changed from the $1 level for this company. If there is substance to a buyout, then I can understand. However, modem manufacturing is a commodity with pretty easy entry, esp on Windows side. Will this company be hurt by lowering prices and dumping from Asia? If they couldn't turn a profit last quarter, then how will things get better on an operating basis?

Unless Apple's market share rises (I hope, but see Creative Computer's announcement - any interpretations on this) and GVIL exits the Windows mkt to be exclusive on Mac, I think GVIL's losses could grow. Sure a rising unit volume helps, but only if the variable costs are lower than revenues.

NB: I'm a fundamental guy- so I missed out on the rumor runup - and am crying in my beer. I'm happy you guys stuck with it.

Sincerely,
Ben



To: Marc Newman who wrote (1302)3/26/1998 2:35:00 PM
From: Richard Jurek  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 1648
 
FYI. Computer Discount Warehouse reports that they have 6 V90's on backorder, expect 5 in today, and about another 6 tomorrow. They expect the modems to "trickle in" over the next week, but expect "a very large quantity order" to arrive the first week of april. Given that those are already on order, those orders should impact this quarter ending march's figure. So the other mailorder and outlets should also impact. Still keeping an eye on css.isn.com and insight to see what sort of inventory numbers they are expecting.

Rich