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Technology Stocks : Apple Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Andrew Fenic who wrote (10207)	3/26/1998 7:21:00 PM
From: Spytrdr	Respond to of 213177

Don't panic, people, it will be a beautiful buying opportunity. As I said before, the good part comes after april 15, so the cheaper we can buy AAPL shares before de 15th, the better.

To: Andrew Fenic who wrote (10207)	3/26/1998 7:22:00 PM
From: GS_Wall Street	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 213177

Adobe's revenues during the quarter were adversely affected by continuing weak demand in Asia, a decline in Macintosh platform revenues, and a slowdown in North American revenues. Also by comparison, the first fiscal quarter of 1997 benefited from revenue momentum related to two major product releases -- Adobe(R) Photoshop(R) 4.0 released just before the quarter began, and Adobe PageMaker(R) 6.5 released during the quarter. The major reason is now new products cycle, if I am buying new MAC and already have photoshop why would I buy a new copy. Adobe trend of declining MAC application software has been used in the past as a excuse. This is not a positive piece for Apple but the negative news in the statement is not new information to those following Apple, at most Apple sells off in the morning only to rebound in the afternoon.

To: Andrew Fenic who wrote (10207)	3/26/1998 7:32:00 PM
From: Scott Crumley	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 213177

Andrew, I have little doubt that Adobe's earnings will serve to scare more speculators out of Apple, as well as, increase short interest. However, I think it's questionable to tie Apple's current quarter to Adobe's. Adobe is a graphics company. The graphics industry is currently predominantly Macintosh and already owns the needed Adobe software. What they wanted this quarter was G3 Macs, not software. Wintel, on the other hand has been trying to make inroads into the graphics market, with some limited success. New Wintel graphics people would be buying Adobe. Apple's main push this quarter has been high-end G3 boxes, that target hardware sales to the graphics industry, more than any other sector. If Adobe had released a major upgrade of PhotoShop, or the like, then I would be concerned about lower revenues for Apple. But to my knowledge, there have been no major upgrades this quarter. Regards, Scott

To: Andrew Fenic who wrote (10207)	3/26/1998 8:28:00 PM
From: Phillip C. Lee	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 213177

Andrew, Go to read Eric's Apple Q2 prospects: macevolution.com Then come back to discuss about what you see about Apple's current quarter. It's stupid just to drop by here and say something illogical. Think twice before you talk. Adobe's event is the extension of Dr. Gil's book complication. This company deserves the punishment. Besides, there is too much speculation on Adobe. It went up 3.5 points, and went down 5 points after-hours trading, which means only went down 1.5 points net. They played the same trick again like the last quarter's report when Adobe's stock was hitting near the yearly bottom. Apple has only 5-6% of all PC market and Apple's market value is only less than 1% of the total values of Dell, Compaq, Gateway, etc. If Apple still can maintain 41% of Adobe's revenue, they should be appreciated and it's a miracle for Apple to still stand at that level. Adobe has known the pc market trend for a long time and has shifted their focus on Wintel. They should have said they were disappointed at Wintel sales figures if according to the ratio of Apple vs. Wintel market share and market values. I would buy your shorts tomorrow. Phil

To: Andrew Fenic who wrote (10207)	3/26/1998 9:26:00 PM
From: eric siegel	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 213177

The smart money is looking to bail here.Major players took positions at 13.00-15.00.Heres something constructive from a long time Apple watcher,if your avg.price is under 22.50 sell protective calls against your positions.The Apr.May 25.00 or 27.50 should be sold here while there is still premium to be had.Tecnically this stock has hit a wall at 28.00,next stop 22.50.Market makers don't want a close over 25.00 for Apr. series.Jobs or no AAPL is trending lower from here. Eric

To: Andrew Fenic who wrote (10207)	3/26/1998 10:11:00 PM
From: SteveHC	Respond to of 213177

<< One really shocking thing is that AAPL's recent price rise has occurred at a time when companies like CPQ, entrenched in the lucrative PC market, are seeing their stocks hammered due to fierce price competition. What does that manner of competition do to a niche provider of more expensive boxes like Apple? My opinion is that it should be killing Apple.>> In my opinion, not so. Successful "niche" players are almost ALWAYS more profitable, at least on a per-unit basis.

To: Andrew Fenic who wrote (10207)	3/26/1998 10:22:00 PM
From: RX4PROFIT	Respond to of 213177

Would Eric, kurt, or anyone who has an SI account, please go over there and tell that guy Andrew Fenic (post #10207) that I was not trying to help him make a case for shorting the stock? I was unaware that a trial member only gets 3 posts a day and I've used them. He's twisting my intent to fit his own purposes and I'd really appreciate it if someone told him so. My point had to do with how an analyst might interpret Adobe's report...not that I don't believe in this stock for the long term. Sheesh! VicAppl Mar 26 1998 7:18PM EST

To: Andrew Fenic who wrote (10207)	3/27/1998 12:35:00 PM
From: X-Ray Man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 213177

Well, in fact, we didn't take much of a hit from ADBE. Andrew, I completely disagree with your position. I think the analysis ADBE made was disingenuous, as I suppose Vic does, and I am just thankful it hasn't done harm today. First of all, software sales on the platform are often a lagging indicator. Second, since wintel has only recently made forays into the publishing and media market that is ADBE's customer base, I would have expected much faster growth for Windows version than 18%. What ADBE did not want to say, but what their numbers really suggest, is that they are having an overall problem. I would expect an overall continuing shift from Mac to Wintel in their revenue mix, even if the Mac platform was static. The question one has to ask oneself is why is ADBE's overall market shrinking? I have a theory that the anti-AAPL crowd may snear at, but could be true. Rather than increasing overall sales in the publishing and media market, the aggressive attempt to move people from Mac to wintel has instead caused purchasers of software in that field to become more reticent to upgrade or expand until the overall direction is clear. In other words, this market does not want to shed their Macintoshes unless they must, and so the overall market is depressed because purchasers are skittish about making investment in new tools. Just my thoughts, contrarian to what some others might think. If companies like ADBE had not shifted resources away from Mac, for both development and advertising, to PC, surely they would not have seen as large a drop in Mac sales. Does this account for all of it? No, but it shows the possible double edged sword of deciding to push the Wintel side if your customer base has been traditionally Mac. I suspect Quark is going to find the same thing out,too.