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Technology Stocks : All About Sun Microsystems -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Alok Sinha who wrote (8689)	3/30/1998 8:33:00 PM
From: travis	Respond to of 64865

for the last two years i have sold to early because of fear of a correction.I have not bought stocks because i waited for a correction to buy lower. needless to say i lost out on good sum of money because the stocks kept going up as i watched them. now i research more.pick a price target and hold. I don't invest it all, but hold part to take advantage of bargains. some day tho! travis

To: Alok Sinha who wrote (8689)	3/30/1998 9:19:00 PM
From: HammerHead	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 64865

some JAVA-related articles: redherring.com techweb.com

To: Alok Sinha who wrote (8689)	3/31/1998 2:49:00 AM
From: uu	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 64865

Dear Alok: > For those of you (Byron, Kal, Addi, etc) who consider moving in and out of stocks (from time to time) based on perception about valuations... It is not a matter of moving in and out of stocks. Trying to time the market is very foolish. However I call this as simple profit taking when one moves out of a stock (or stocks) based on what seems so obvious to him/her (in his/her humble opinion of course) that will cause an eventual decline in valuations in the short term. In my case I came to believe late last January/early February that high techs can not possibly meet the earnings expectations. I based this on my understanding of the Y2K as well as the South East Asian situation. I have always believed that stock prices are based on their underlying company's capabilities to generate growth in their earnings and revenue. In the short term valuations may get out of hand but eventually prices will reflect the earnings and revenue growth. And so when I felt high techs will not meet the expected earnings the only obvious conclusion that I could come up was thir stock prices will fall and a major correction will take place once this quarter ends. So I did what my logic dicated: To sell most of my stocks in the rallys and after 6-7 years of being 100% invested in the market to go 70% cash, 30% stocks earlier this month. However, I no longer believe my anticipated correction of high techs will be dramatic. There will be some correction but it will be very short lived and minor. Why? Well to begin with traditional logic no longer works when it comes to the existing market! Why? Well here are my reasons: 1. Unemployment is at its lowest in decades. The employed population is financially prospering dramatically due to high paying jobs. Furthermore this employed population has only one thing in mind: to invest and to save so they can retire comfortably when the time arrives. This translates into huge cash flow into the market (through 401Ks, IRAs, Pension programs, etc.). Most people these days use their extra cash to save and to invest rather than to buy a fancy expensive Polo shirt and/or an expensive Porche! The psychology of employed population (which incidently is at the highest in geneations) is simply to invest and to save for their retirement. This has also changed the market psychology from a short term vision to one that has a long term characteristics. 2. Inflation remains very low and will continue to remain low IMHO, thanks to the high degree of productivity that is a manifestation of technology, and also to short term misc events such as the South East Asian situation, and also events that will last longer such as decline in the prices of oil. A combination of these with the high degree of investment mentality of the employed population will continue to make sure inflation is in check and in control. This in turn results in lower interest rates. And the ultimate outcome is more money for you and I as well as corporate America to maintain their profitability despite the temporary short falls of their earnings due to short lived events such as Y2K, and South East Asia. 3. Because the market psychology is currently driven by the employed population who has investment and savings in mind, the dynamics of the market have changed from having a short term view to one that is of longer term vision. In otherwords the moment the price of a premium growth company (e.g. AMAT, MSFT, INTC, CPQ, LSI, etc.) drops smart money with long term mentality jumps in and buys the shares that are being given away. Thus IMHO of course, we will not see a major correction of high techs. As for myself and after my recent purchase of AMAT and CPQ I am now 50% cash and 50% in stocks. I still think there will be some sort of correction (although in my view it will not be as hard as I had originally thought) by the end of May during which I am planning to become 100% invested again in stocks. The best deals right now IMHO are semi conductor companies such as AMAT, LSI, VLSI, VTSS, etc. and CPQ. As for SUNW after selling 90% of my holding in the stock earlier last month in the $46-$47 range I continue to stay away from the stock until (and if) it gets to $33-$38 range at which time I am planning to buy every single one of my shares I sold earlier. Sun continues to suffer from a poor market perception, and I personally think that their recent huge investments in R&D will have some negative impacts on their earnings in the short term, especially since they also will be facing major setbacks in South East Asia (particularly in Japan). Unless of course Europe comes to rescue I personally think Sun will be going through a period of decline in earnings for the next quarter or so. This will however be followed by a stronger than ever company. Of course if I am right and the market has come to evolve into having a more educated long term mentality then Sun will do ok in the short term also. However my personal feeling is that the market perception toward Sun will prevent the longer term mentality to prevail during the next quarter of so (i.e. in the immediate short term.) Anyway, as always just my humble opinion and I have proven to be wrong many times in the past! Regards, Addi Jamshidi