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Technology Stocks : Apple Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Michael D. Muzzie who wrote (10790)	4/3/1998 2:38:00 AM
From: Michael D. Muzzie	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 213177

Who here believes in the random walk or efficient market hypotheses? I can't sleep, so I thought I'd try to use my limited knowledge to start a stock-related discussion. I tire of many of the OS comparison and slug discussions. And I really enjoy when discussions use some textbook analysis to give us all a better perspective on trading. (Comments by Eric Yang, Phil, et al. over the past 3-4 mos. have certainly helped me to apply my classroom knowledge to practical trading.) How my question above relates to AAPL??? How much of a positive Q2 earnings report is already figured into the stock price of AAPL? Is it realistic to believe that an earnings prediction such as Eric Yang's, or Leonardo, or Gavin Young, combined with sustained growth, would immediately push AAPL into the 32-35 range? Ever since having Burton Malkiel for Micro and reading parts of his incredibly interesting book, _A Random Walk Down Wall Street_, I've always chaffed against his statement that "no fundamental analysis that is based on publicly available information can produce results that consistently outperform the market average." (of course there are the 2 refinements, the semi-strong efficient market hypothesis--all public information is immediately reflected in price of a stock. and the strong efficient market hypothesis--even non-public (insider) information is fully incorporated into the price of the stock) Is all of this stuff completely thrown to the wind because of 1. prejudices against AAPL and related companies 2. the sheer volume of company information thanks to the internet,and 3. the overall irrationality of the current tech-sector bubble [remind anyone of biotech bubble?] With all of the money I've made in the past couple of months thanks to AAPL, and since I'm a relatively inexperienced trader--shouldn't the Big Boys (MMs), with their CAPMs and Black and Scholes calcs have snatched up those opportunities before 'little ol' me' got to them? Is psychology the only reliable form of stock valuation that we have left? I'd love to hear your thoughts, Michael

To: Michael D. Muzzie who wrote (10790)	4/3/1998 11:36:00 AM
From: Russ	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 213177

So, fellow AAPL-watchers, how realistic is a preliminary AMP announcement? If AMP is going to be announced before summer, this is where it will be announced. I don't know how far along it is, but I would not be surprised by an announcement at NAB. I would also not be surprised if there were no announcement. However, if AMP is supposed to be the big thing for Xmas 98, it has to be available in all consumer outlets by September, and available to the bleeding edge crowd by the summer, so something will have to be announced soon if there's any hope for it. There will definitely not be an announcement on Q2 earnings because that is not an appropriate site. -Russ