Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : TA Science Projects & Experimental Indicators -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: HeyRainier who wrote (104)	4/4/1998 9:47:00 PM
From: ftth	Respond to of 237

Hi Rainier, way back at posts 10,12,15, and 18 there was a little bit of a Fibonacci-based indicator period discussion. I never really reached a point where I thought further experiments would be worthwhile. I think it comes back to the same arguments of no fixed indicator works well across all stocks and all time periods, and then to the ADAPTIVE indicator arguments. Now, along those lines, an indicator could certainly be made adaptive in Fibonacci steps. For example, say the MA is made responsive to the rate of change of volatility. You would set up several (say 3) threshold levels, and each time the Volatility ROC crossed the threshold, the MA automatically bumped down a Fib step. Maybe like this: Say the MA starts at 55 days; the MA stays at 55 days until the VROC crosses the first threshold, at which time the MA changes to a 34 period MA. If it crosses threshold #2, the MA changes to 21 day, and if it crosses threshold #3, the MA bumps down to 13 day. Same in reverse as the VROC decreases, although the downside thresholds should probably be lower than the upside thresholds (hysteresis, as it's called) so that if it happens to sit right at a threshold for a few days, it doesn't flail back and forth between 2 MA settings. Just a "top of the head" thought, but maybe it'll plant a seed that leads to the soon to be famous "RAFMA" indicator (Rainier's Adaptive Fibonacci Moving Average). dh

To: HeyRainier who wrote (104)	4/4/1998 9:56:00 PM
From: ftth	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 237

Once you/we get the adaptive part worked out, the next step is to make the indicator "self-initializing" on top of being adaptive to the specific behavior of the stock. What this means is, in the example I gave, rather that starting with the 55 period MA and adapting down from there, with some stocks it may be more appropriate to start with the 89 day, or maybe the 34 day. This decision could be made by, for example, measuring the number of periods between key pivot points, and having this separation automatically select the baseline MA to start with???? dh