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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Clarksterh who wrote (18533)	4/4/1998 11:59:00 AM
From: Dr. Bob	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Clark, Thanks. You have stated the bull's case well. What about the bearish argument (which I think I get from Carl Johnson) that existing fabs are finding ways to be more efficient at the 200mm level, with die shrinks, etc., which while requiring some equipment upgrades, is not driving equipment purchases at the level previously anticipated, and won't until 300mm becomes a more efficient way to go - a move which may be a couple years off yet? Bob

To: Clarksterh who wrote (18533)	4/4/1998 5:54:00 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Clark: Aki's argument re Japan seems to be one of total financial collapse which has not been factored into the market. Well, no disagreement there although most do not believe that Japan is going down the tubes. Armageddon has not been discounted. But a couple of facts. Capital spending on factory gear by Japan's chipmakers has been flat since 1995. Japan spent $7.3B last year on factory equipment in 1997 down from $7.9B in both 1995 and 1996. I have read estimates that Japanese companies will cut capital spending from 10% to 20% in 1998. Such decreases in spending should already be in the market. In the meantime, since January, the semi-equipment group has made higher-lows and higher-highs in its climb up the wall of worry. I understand now that the Japanese chip companies are going to announce fiscal results for the year ending March, 1998 sometime during April and that we should get a glimpse of their cape ex plans at that time. In the meantime, while there are Japanese problems Europe looks promising: semi.org

To: Clarksterh who wrote (18533)	4/4/1998 9:47:00 PM
From: akidron	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Just wanted to thank everybody for the response... whether favorable or not... it stimulates the mind.... Clark... my post was intended to be a summary of my position, thus it incorporates many ideas I have previously posted.... I chose the time carefully as I suspected that AMAT might reach 40 on a bull run driven by the enormous liquidity in the market right now.... and timed this post so that it would honestly correspond to my trading position.... the only thing I would like to add is that I think AMAT is a wonderful franchise and I do truly hope that I am right, and that I do not miss the boat... but my constitution is not one that can watch paper profits evaporate... And therefore I rate the decision to sell AMAT at 100 last year to have been the correct one as it has allowed me the liquidity to be brave on a number of other investments.... investments I would not have made on margin.