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Technology Stocks : Westell WSTL -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Trey McAtee who wrote (10060)4/4/1998 10:51:00 PM
From: srvhap  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 21342
 
<<i dont think the reaction of GTE ILEC announcing ORCTF as vendor is going to be dramatic. maybe a 1/4 point to the downside. this has been expected for a while, at least by wall st. >>

maybe a 1/4 on the downside (I think a little more) for WSTL but my guess is that ORCTF trades between 18 -19 for the next week and then the deal is announced and the stock jumps to 23-25. Will see :)



To: Trey McAtee who wrote (10060)4/5/1998 12:25:00 PM
From: Zephod  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 21342
 
>>>i dont think the reaction of GTE ILEC announcing ORCTF as vendor is going to be dramatic. maybe a 1/4 point to the downside. this has been expected for a while, at least by wall st.

Trey; If Orkit gets an exclusive GTE ILEC contract you can bet Westell will, at least temporarily, trade down 3/4 of a point or so. While I agree with your assessment "this has been expected for a while, at least by wall st", I still think the market makers will see this as an opportunity to steal some inventory from weak hands by exploiting the bad news.

I witnessed an example of how they manipulate the price and pick up inventory the last time I bought Westell. It was March 5, one of those days when the futures were lock limit down right before the open and it looked like it was going to get nasty. Westell had closed at 12 1/4 on the 4th, opened at 11 7/8 on the 5th. I placed a "buy at the market" order right at the open, stock was trading at 11 3/4-7/8 at the time, but moving down quickly. They took all the sells all the way down to 11 1/2, brought the price back up and filled my order at 11 7/8.

Here's how I think it would play out. Pipers whipsaw scenario, but I think it would happen much quicker, possibly within 1/2 an hour. If GTE ILEC makes an announcement to deploy Orkit, with no mention of Westell, I think the market makers would drop the bid to try to scare us into selling on the bad news. I could see them taking it to 12, maybe a little lower, panic selling washes out the last of the sellers, at that point all the bad news is out (we assume), low is set, smart money moves in anticipating any forthcoming news. Stock closes up for the day.

>>>i still find it difficult to believe that we will not get any of the GTE ILEC contract.

I agree, I still think back to that writer who was part of the Redmond trail that had a new Westell modem installed by GTE in January. I also don't understand why everyone is assuming Orkit is referring to GTE and not Deutsche Telekom in the press release. Dave

PS. Curly, Bill, Hiram, great reads