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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Joey Two-Cents who wrote (6892)	4/13/1998 10:32:00 PM
From: drsvelte	Respond to of 18691

Joey: What you've posted (nice work!) fits with the thoughts on the following thread. Its a matter of timing. Subject 12382

To: Joey Two-Cents who wrote (6892)	4/13/1998 10:39:00 PM
From: Pancho Villa	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 18691

JTC: The trend is there. The Asian crisis will hit. The thing is that continuous involvement with the market, (SI/qoute checking several times a day - at least in my case), make a few weeks/couple of months seem an eternity. IMO the right approach is to give it time, to leave it alone for a while. Knowing that market forecating is just guessing, I venture to say that the market should not be taking off again the way it did in Feb/March. Now we are at a point were people acknowledge the marlet is overpriced, that we are playing a "greater fool" game. Now, the rationale for "business as usual" is that the market is not as overprice as in Japan. Perhaps that is what we all want, a US market as screw up as Japan so that eventually things turn out as bad as there. As Mr. Buffet said in his letter to stockholders. If you frequently eat burgers, do you cheer up when the price of berguers goes up? Pancho Pancho

To: Joey Two-Cents who wrote (6892)	4/14/1998 8:36:00 AM
From: Kip518	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 18691

Pancho, the market seems to be very weak.. With only 2 days for IRA/401K contributions I don't see what will move this market higher. Of course unless there's strong earning suprises. Joey, the past few days suggests that all the other ploys to keep this balloon afloat are beginning to fail. So, we're on to the last round -- which is using bloated stock prices as cheap currency for buy-outs. Mergers excite the market and keep money sloshing around from one rumored prospect to another. Another mania, another sign of market top, but it can keep the cash flowing while insiders continue to dump stock & the transaction guys fill their pockets. As for strong earning surprises, I think they are highly likely as the thresholds of surprise (estimates) have been lowered dramatically. If folks look past the estimate & whisper comparisons to year-to-year comparisons then the surprises may not have the bang of the past. I appreciate your links to reports on Japan. I believe that Japan is ultimately going to take us down. Kip