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Technology Stocks : Ascend Communications (ASND) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tim Luke who wrote (44326)	4/14/1998 6:32:00 PM
From: djane	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 61433

[ASND price prediction as of mid-4/98. $65 target by mid-1/99] Just for fun, I've outlined my ASND stock price prediction (assuming no buyout) until mid-1/99. Consider ASND's chart as a coiled spring based on: 1. Benefits of the 6/97 Cascade acquisition 2. "Killer switch" (GX550) earnings starting in 4/98 3. New product cycle, e.g., VoIP/TNT-II/DSL 4. 56K modem standard. 12/98 Christmas PCs w/Windows 98 5. European telecom deregulation since 1/1/98 6. Sterling customer list. No lost customers from 1997 problems 7. Asian economic recovery in 2H98. 5% back to 20%? 8. Undervaluation compared to CSCO. Growth higher than PE 9. ASND's worldwide installed base and upgrade cycle needs 10. Buyout possibility (LU, NT, ALA, INTC, IBM, ERICY, ??) 11. Data networking industry explosive growth worldwide 12. PE multiple expansion based on stable/consistent earnings 13. $500-$1000 PCs. Worldwide Internet users increases 14. Rotation into networkers from overvalued DOW/Nifty 50 15. Rotation into ASND from COMS/BAY/CS as No.2 behind CSCO 16. Momentum players return after 2-3 qtrs accelerating earnings 17. Wall St. trust in Ashby. Consistent earnings growth None of these factors have been adequately factored into ASND's price as of mid-4/98. 4-6/98 40-45 trading range early 7/98 Spike up to 45 mid-7/98 Q298 earnings report. CX550 revenues 7-9/98 40-45 trading range late 9/98 45-50 trading range (10/88 LU buyout speculation increases) early 10/98 Spike up to 50 (continued LU buyout rumors; great compare to 10/97) mid-10/98 Q398 earnings report 10-12/98 50-55 trading range (buyout rumors; looking to 1999 $1.75+/sh estimates) early 1/99 Spike up to 60 (Q4 usually strong) mid-1/99 Q498 earnings report (FY1999 $1.75+/sh estimates) mid-1/99 65-70 trading range Okay, okay, use me as a contrary indicator if you like. Yeah, my sentiment is too positive, I'm too complacent, blah, blah, blah. SELL, SELL, SELL. Whatever. I've been an unrepentant bull on ASND since buying 2500 shares at $27 in Fall 1997. I'm a long-term, position player, not trader on ASND. Consider me the Joe Battapaglia of the thread. Look, the "analysts" are still low-balling their estimates due to the Q397 .20/sh disappointment. Again, if you think this scenario is too bullish, consider that $60/sh would only get ASND back to its 52-week high and well below its $80/sh all-time high. Of course, there will be fluctuations depending on the health of the market/economy, interest rates and inflation. Bookmark this post and let's refer back to it after the ASND earnings report in mid-1/99. P.S. If you were an investment banker advising a potential acquirer of ASND and believed the above scenario was likely, wouldn't you advise your client to buy ASND now rather than at a much higher price in 6-9 months?

To: Tim Luke who wrote (44326)	4/14/1998 7:17:00 PM
From: djane	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 61433

Networking buyout/other rumors by Mr. Katt 'Loose lips sink chips,' bellows the ever-blabby Intel www8.zdnet.com By Spencer F. Katt 04.13.98 It's a semiannual ritual: Intel plans a major processor announcement, the press covers it in advance ad nauseam, then right before the official rollout the chip giant beats up on a few loose-lipped licensees that have the gall to discuss what everyone knows already anyway. Such was the case on the eve of Intel's release this week of its new 350/400MHz Pentium IIs--one of the worst-kept secrets on the planet. Micron, one of the objects of Intel's misguided wrath, is using the new chips as a launch pad to go after small to midsize business customers, although it's not going alone. His Hirsuteness hears the direct marketer from Nampa, Idaho, is lining up third-party service providers to support business customers through a soon-to-be-expanded Web site and is working on deals with ISVs to bundle small-biz software with its systems. On the product road map, the Tabby was told, are Micron's first technical workstations, now that Intel has cranked up the Pentium to workstation-class speeds; a notebook with a lithium-polymer battery, due this summer; and a Windows CE device, although the spudheads are still figuring out how to approach the sub-$1,000 portable market. Silicon Valley tipsters are wondering if Cisco is really going to have Gigabit Ethernet products anytime soon. Long lambasted for being behind the big-bandwidth curve, Cisco is using a media access controller from Intel that doesn't support Gigabit speeds, according to one Furball fan who's using the very same MAC in testing equipment. Without a new rev of the MAC, ports will "drag along" at about 400M bps max, the tattler said. Cisco rival 3Com, meanwhile, is getting ready to announce a partnership with a major telecommunications provider. With 3Com adding wireless capabilities to its Total Control access concentrator, some tipsters think Nokia could be the chosen one, but others say Nortel and Lucent also are in the running. Nortel and Lucent could also be vying for a bigger prize: Bay Networks. That was one of the acquisition rumors running rampant among networking pundits last week. Another: Alcatel buying Xylan. And does Cabletron have the legs to make yet another purchase? Tipsters, intrigued by the company's reported snapping up of NetVantage last week, say IP telephony is the next target. NetDynamics, which calls itself the Switzerland of the Java standards battle, wants to bring Sun and Microsoft together at its users conference next month for a formal debate over Java. An insider let the Puss in on a little secret: Sun has accepted the invitation, but so far Microsoft remains noncommittal. NetDynamics figures it can't lose, since it's pledging support for Microsoft's Java Virtual Machine while simultaneously backing Sun's Java Foundation Classes and Enterprise JavaBeans. Goings and comings at Digital: Layoffs have already begun in preparation for the merger with Compaq, with contractors the first to fall on their swords, reports one of those newly unemployed workers. At the same time, Compaq human resources personnel, including head HR honcho Hans Gutsch, have been seen milling around Digital's facilities on fact-finding missions. Here's a fact: The first cut's not the deepest. Have a tip? Contact Rumor Central by phone at (781) 393-3700 or via e-mail at spencer_katt@zd.com.