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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mister topes who wrote (4608)	4/15/1998 7:38:00 AM
From: J. W. Schneider	Respond to of 42834

PLEEZ EXPLAIN!!!! JWS

To: mister topes who wrote (4608)	4/15/1998 10:20:00 AM
From: Thomas M. Carroll	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 42834

Without sounding sarcastic, do you have a clue that BB's newsletter is in libraries across the country ??? Tom C

To: mister topes who wrote (4608)	4/16/1998 10:46:00 AM
From: Boca_PETE	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 42834

donL and ALL: re: <Sheldon Jacobs Presentation at AAII Greenwich, CT> Last night (4/15/98), Bob Brinker's BJ Group partner, Sheldon Jacobs (Mr. No-Load), addressed a standing room overflow crowd of about 200 people at a dinner meeting of the Connecticut Chapter or the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) last night in Greenwich, CT. You may remember that Sheldon's model portfolio is updated semi annually in the New York Times - it usually is shown beating the published competing portfolios. He also publishes the popular highly ranked monthly mutual fund newsletter, The No-Load Fund Investor. Some of my recollections of the points Sheldon made in his one hour presentation were as follows: ú Asserts that "market timing" has unfairly gotten a bad name. While he isn't wholeheartedly in favor of such timing, he has a partner (Bob Brinker) who has successfully done it. Instead, Jacobs remains fully invested and lowers the beta's in his model portfolios during periods he is nervous about market valuations. ú Believes in investing in mutual funds. Sheldon hasn't owned an individual stock for many years. He showed a striking bar graph where increasingly higher returns were retained the longer one holds an investment. ú Believes market performance will regress to the mean, but sometimes "the mean" moves. He related the story about a student in Benjamin Graham's college class in the early 1950's who ignored Graham's similar then advice when the market was at an all time high. Looking at the history of the S&P Index, it's striking to see the upside breakout after the December 31, 1953 end of the "excess profits tax". The market took off from that point and didn't level off until the 1968-1982 period. The student's name was Warren Buffet. ú Believes that further increases in the current market environment will have to come from earnings since P/E's are at record highs and probably can't go much higher. Jacobs noted that just a 7-1/2% return per year out to year 2010 would lift the DOW to 20,000 from current levels. ú Believes it's best to buy on dips during 1998 and foresees volatility for the rest of the year. He advises "don't bet the ranch" on any single investment. ú Expects that future bear markets will be sharp, however he believes they will be more brief than in the past given improvements in communications technology. ú Believes it's more important than ever to place tax inefficient investments in sheltered accounts (IRA's, Keoghs, etc.) and have taxable money invested in tax efficient low turnover investments, given last year's changes in capital gains tax rates. ú Believes the drivers of this long-term bull market have been the opening of free markets from the from the failure of communism, the spread of free trade, the squashing of high interest rates and inflation by the Volker-Greenspan FED administrations, and the technology-communication revolution. ú Believes in the investment pyramid system of portfolio construction where you invest in a core of conservative growth and income funds, a lesser amount of growth funds, an even lesser amount of aggressive growth funds, and a small amount of speculative investments (if you're so inclined). ú Believes in the top-down single portfolio approach to asset allocation when constructing an investment portfolio. First total all financial assets and decided % Bonds % Stocks. Second, decide % U.S. % International. Third, decide % allocation to detailed types of funds to achieve diversity in each of U.S. and International market areas. Last, decide funds placed in tax sheltered accounts and those placed in taxable accounts. ú Recommends avoiding leverage. He cited last year's bankruptcy of Victor Neiderhoffer's fund (went from $120 mil to zero in one day during last fall's correction) due to margin calls he couldn't cover. ú Mentioned a sample of funds he currently recommends which include: - Marsico Focus Fund - PBHG Large Cap 20 Fund - Hotchkis & Wiley Small Cap Fund ú For conservative investors, he recommended: - Baron Growth & Income Fund (Per Jacobs, Ron Baron is an excellent stock picker) - Robertson Stephens Growth & Income Fund - Realty Funds (believes their 1998 performance will make a comeback later this year) ú For young new investors, he was especially keen on the new TIAA-CRET Family of funds with their extremely low expense ratios, pure no-load funds, and very low initial minimum investments ($250 to start, or $25/month for automatic monthly investment plans). Managers of pension funds since 1918, their philosophy is to invest in indexes and to only buy individual stocks they feel will beat the indexes. Hope you all find this material as interesting as I did. I know much of it may sound familiar from what we've already heard on the Moneytalk programs :-) P

To: mister topes who wrote (4608)	4/18/1998 7:22:00 PM
From: Boca_PETE	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 42834

DonL: I believe your buddy Brinker incurred a moment of temporary insanity this afternoon when he told a caller that he had no problem taxing 100% of received social security benefits. Brinker claimed that social security should be totally taxed because pensions are taxed - pretty flimsey reasoning. He stuck with his opinion even though the caller correctly pointed out that even in the caller's private pension account he was not taxed on the aftertax contributions made to the plan. To tax people's aftertax contributions to social security would only be fail if the government provided for a tax deduction for all social security contributions paid into the government since birth ! I just don't get it - usually Brinker makes so much sense. This time I believe he totally lost it. Such 100% taxation of social security benefits would be tantamount to a back door reduction in benefits. P P