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Technology Stocks : All About Sun Microsystems -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: cheryl williamson who wrote (9244)	4/22/1998 1:53:00 AM
From: QwikSand	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 64865

For a good take on how Sun is going to win the next application war with Java, follow the link to the NY Times originally cited by Michael F. Donadio in: Message 4125962 That little article is as good a terse statement of (the client half of) Sun's strategy as I've seen in the mainstream media (of course the WSJ wouldn't run such a favorable article). I respect many of twister's opinions; much of his analysis of why SUNW sticks in a low-P/E range is accurate, e.g., gross margins that are nice for the bottom line but scare the Street, etc. Where I believe he is wrong is that he refuses to acknowledge what I believe this NYT article points out well, if briefly: Microsoft's installed base ties its resources to fighting the last war, while Sun is fighting, and will win, the next. It's that simple. "Network Computing", "Thin Client/Fat Server", etc. are all relatively weak and inadequate descriptions of the paradigm shift that we all know is coming: an IP number for everything you touch (well most things), huge wired and wireless bandwidth increases, super-cheap ubiquitous compute power, therefore a huge number of data producers and consumers of all sizes all over the place requiring a gigantic global information infrastructure with ever-larger servers & smarter storage systems to support it. Some piece of Dell screwdriver shavings sitting on your desk with disk drives in it is, from a strategic computing point of view, yesterday's news regardless of how many millions of them there are. Microsoft will continue to grow and make billions off that junk. But the junk is not the crux of the future. Java is; not Java the language, Java the paradigm. It will happen, and it will not take twenty years, and it will not take ten. And Mr. Bill is perfectly well aware of it. The Street can't see it yet but can't fail to see it soon. Regards, --QwikSand

To: cheryl williamson who wrote (9244)	4/22/1998 10:24:00 AM
From: Michael Watkins	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 64865

I alway hesitate entering a discussion on OS's because there's no winning the discussion. And quick comments get one into trouble! I'm not being trying to be glib about "enterprise applications" by talking about 100's of thousands of apps elsewhere. I simply feel that safety in numbers is an appealing concept to a lot of technology buyers. Believe me, I've lived there - been there, done that. Worked for a competing UNIX vendor and danced with glee over the Sun OS to Solaris migration debacle. Sold and implemented many million dollar systems to run "enterprise apps". At this UNIX vendor they too had something on the order of 13,000 applications documented in a "Solutions Handbook" and made available to a sales force. You can cull out half of those I bet (speculation on my part). Smaller VARs and ISV's that are moving their apps to other platforms; apps that are no longer being supported; apps that are no longer needed. True, and especially true for Sun, engineering apps are a strong spot for UNIX workstation vendors, but everything I read sees this is a market in decline. I strongly believe in the right tool for the job. Having said that, I'm seeing a strong trend away from UNIX. As a solution architect I'm finding more often than not these days that NT is playing a significant role in apps - certainly at the workgroup level; and often at the corporate or "enterprise" level. Many times a UNIX platform is being relegated simply as the box on which a database run, and often not for performance, but because there is a legacy investment. Just my experience... your milage may vary. Last, with the Y2K issue finally coming on strong in many organizations I'm finding that more and more clients are less concerned about the architectural purity of a solution than they are with getting the job done. For all its frailties, the MS platform allows for a lot of productive work to be done, quickly. I wouldn't build a space shuttle control system on NT, but I would build an accounting system or a reporting system or a document control system or a field data capture system etc etc etc. Yes, UNIX is still growing, but it aint the party it once was. Cheers Michael