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Technology Stocks : Adaptec (ADPT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Starowl who wrote (1721)	4/22/1998 4:44:00 AM
From: Johnathan C. Doe	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5944

Must read article on second half outlook for bandwidth hardware!: biz.yahoo.com "U.S. Applications Markets for Emerging Bus Technologies will be propelled toward dramatic revenues and unit shipment increases in the second half of 1998." "The IEEE 1394 section forecasts for digital video applications and groups other emerging markets into a second segment. Drivers in the IEEE 1394 market include digital TV, easy installation and interoperability functions, real time replacement of IDE and an increasing demand for DVD products." So it seems clear that Adaptec is dead?

To: Starowl who wrote (1721)	4/22/1998 5:16:00 AM
From: Torben Noerup Nielsen	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 5944

Starowl, I have to agree wholeheartedly with the Adaptec statement. It says it about as well as you can. I remember being in discussions with people in both Europe and Japan years ago where they claimed that ATM would take over both the LAN and WAN market any day. And it still hasn't happened. ATM will certainly have a role to play, but it will be far more limited than its proponents claim. In my personal - and I am quite opinionated in this area! - ATM will end up much like FDDI is now; i.e.,it will have a place, but it will not be ubiquitous. As far as I can tell, it is largely being pushed for corporate backbones that run as virtual private networks on top of it. And it is being pushed for voice which is what it was really designed for. By the way, ATM can be pushed about as high as you want. 155 Mbps can be done using an OC-3 carrier and 622 Mbps can be done with an OC-12 carrier. But you can also do straight IP over SONET and that is a whole lot more efficiennt. Regarding the transition from Ethernet to Fast Ethernet, it really is easy since a lot of the newer interface cards are autosensing and almost noone uses coaxial cable any longer. That is, just about everyone uses hubs and twisted pair. If you have a recent network card and someone upgraded your hub from Ethernet to Fast Ethernet, odds are you wouldn't know a thing. Assuming of course that someone had the foresight to put in CAT-5 cable instead of CAT-3 when they wired your room. I absolutely love Switched Fast Ethernet. The throughput is really good and the latency is lower than with FDDI. Also, try to install an FDDI ring some day. I have done it a few times and it is a real pain in the rear. I have a bad habit of trying things just when they come out (my computers are generally not more than a few months old and my network gear isn't a lot older :-)). I have also tried installing just about every network technology there is so I have some basis for comparison. For what it is worth, I believe that Adaptec is on exactly the right track. Is that me just seing what I want to see since I they agree with me and I own quite a few thousand shares? Could be. But I for one am willing to put my money where my mouth is and take my chances. Adaptec is doing the right thing technically. When it comes to SCSI, fiber channel or 1394, I wouldn't even think of buying from anyone else. Again, I have installed lots of different interfaces over time and Adaptec has some nice ones. Good quality engineering. They also pass the Torben Test which means that I can figure out how to install them without reading the documentation :-) Cheers, Torben