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Technology Stocks : Adaptec (ADPT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Torben Noerup Nielsen who wrote (1724)	4/22/1998 7:01:00 AM
From: Starowl	Respond to of 5944

Torben: Very much appreciated post. Also, an endorsement of a company from a power user/manager of the kinds of products it produces is important information for current and prospective investors; traders won't care, of course. Again, thanks and cheers to you. Starowl

To: Torben Noerup Nielsen who wrote (1724)	4/22/1998 8:03:00 AM
From: Dr. Johannes Bruski	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5944

Torben, thank you for your message. It looks as though ADPT passes various of my (personal, but not necessarily very creative) criteria for substantial medium and long-term investments: 1. Historically, stable sales, earnings and book value growth and a high net profit margin (indicating solid market entrance barriers for competitors), still coupled with a nice cash reserve, 2. good prospects for substantial medium-term sales and EPS growth, 3. excellent product portfolio and product quality level, coupled with high customer recognition, well positioned in future growth areas (I derive that from your post), 4. a low P/E, with historically much higher, P/Es which appears to be due to an overreaction to a temporary growth slump with well-defined reasons (in this case, apparently, limited demand for SCSI technology, a sales slump in Asia in general, high R&D costs in a transition period and a change in accounting procedure) so that a return to historical P/E levels is probable when business picks up again, i.e. a limited downside with a good medium- and long-term upside potential. What I would like to know more about is the "human factor" (quality of management, technical staff and sales force, employee motivation, corporate spirit, if any), which would be the fifth criterion. If your answer on this is positive, ADPT might be one of the turnaround candidates of the year. Anyways, I would like to invite anyone here to point out any flaws in my perhaps somewhat optimistic analysis. (Which would be a little disappointing, since I have already started to build a position.) Best regards, Johannes Bruski

To: Torben Noerup Nielsen who wrote (1724)	4/22/1998 10:10:00 AM
From: George Dawson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5944

Torben, What do you think of Gigabit Ethernet as a backbone technology? I know there is a cabling problem and the standards are still slowly evolving. The technology is moving slowly and it seems like they depended a lot on the "ethernet" name for marketing purposes. George D.

To: Torben Noerup Nielsen who wrote (1724)	4/23/1998 12:18:00 AM
From: Johnathan C. Doe	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 5944

Torben, we have all looked at this stock sitting at a bottom and it was time for action. What is so interesting about these times is how difficult it is to trust the situation. At the buy time; the price where people will look back and say, "Man, I should have bought it when it was xx.xx", that is the maximum moment of doubt. I am just surprised that after looking at the chart action anyone is still apologizing for buying ADPT at around 20 or less. It is just such a steal. Look at the momentum that is in WDC these days. That stock was such a buy at 15 and look at how many times it traded up then down before moving out of the ditch. It wasn't really that long of a wait though.