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Non-Tech : Philip Morris - A Stock For Wealth Or Poverty (MO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Rarebird who wrote (1469)4/25/1998 10:11:00 PM
From: men mailman  Respond to of 6439
 
I don't understand since they seem somewhat condictory in nature. Either the setllement is good or bad.

BTW I have spoken to a senior analyst who feels that by end of JUNE we will know where we stand regarding the settlement. Since congress is up for reelection so before the end of this session they will either come to a deal or there will be no deal for some time since they will have to start new with a NEW congress.

Either way the stock will recover significantly. If a deal that is acceptable passes then MO hits $60 in a few trading sessions.

If a deal does not pass then MO will be able to renew it's BUYBACK since they will not be restricted to do so due to ongoing negotiations. At that point we hit 45-50.

TIME WILL TELL.



To: Rarebird who wrote (1469)4/26/1998 3:47:00 AM
From: don kramer  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 6439
 
I wish to add, my recurring themes .

1. The Congress is not as powerful as it thinks,
it to be.
And Clinton, a nothing of a man, nor a leader nor a president,
nor a statesmen nor anyone to look up to, (according the polls)
about the only thing he does well, is get his pants on and off
reeal quicccck. I do not believe he is a factor.
nor will he actually provide wisdom or solution. I believe that people will correctly see that this is a money grab.

In any event, there really is no more damage,
which they can inflict, except for a declaration
that tobacco is illegal. I am not sure how, a return
to prohibition, would work. We have already tried that
type of social engineering, 60 years ago, and it did not
work. More recently, it did not work in Canada, when
they increase taxes. (BTW, most recently Norway, REDUCED,
there tax on tobacco, in order to DISCOURAGE the blatent
smuggling)

2. Consider the break up value of MO.
3. BUT most important, consider the Federal Courts.
Tobacco seems to be winning, not on technical issues,
but in Law.
4. Consider, we have the three FEDERAL judges of the Appelate
Court reviewing, as we write, the lower NC judge's ruling
on FDA jurisdiction. A ruling in favor, of Tobacco, is
a giant bombshell, in the face of the opponents.
5. The street analyst's have no clue.
6. However, the analyst's on the institution's side,
the big insurance and pension firms, I believe, do have
some inside knowledge. (btw, I used to work for one of the
largest pension funds in the US, and I know that the calibre
of the analyst's at the pension funds is different than
the street) I see no exodus of selling from the funds,

witness, the decision of Yale University's endowement,
to keep, Tobacco stocks, btw, Kessler former FDA commissionar
went to YALE Medical School. (how about that! probable really
"galls" him. I believe some one at the endowment said in effect,
we will take care of the investments, and Dr. Keller can
take of the Medical School, thankyou, but ...it is not your
business...or something like that)
at Yale

7. ...and finally, do not forget the plaintiff's lawyers,
we have heard of $300-500 million in fees owed.
They get nothing with out a resolution of an ending.
8. I take Goldstone of RJN at his word. He's finished with
the Washington, D.C.
9. Back to damages, I believe that time is on the side of
tobacco.
10. ...all together now... and How much did MO make last quarter,
this past 90 days. Yell it out, I can not hear you.

And...what was return on equity.,...everybody...say it LOUD.

I think it is the Courts, that is the ace. Tobacco's card to play.

dk




To: Rarebird who wrote (1469)4/26/1998 5:23:00 PM
From: Brian Malloy  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 6439
 
In my humble opinion, Tobacco made the right decision by walking away. Bottom line, from mid '99 on it will be a moot point. The government is not doing what it should with respect to Y2K. Once 1 January 2000 hits tobacco will be one the farthest things from the minds of politicians as they try to explain why they have been asleep at the helm. If anything, people will be smoking many more cigaretts in a few years.