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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ian@SI who wrote (5252)	5/4/1998 3:04:00 PM
From: Scott Brooks	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

I would hardly call Carl J a market maven. I was getting the free trial when all hell broke loose in the Fall of 97. My recollections: Starting with KLIC, Infrastructure maintained that it was company specific, no danger to the sector because of the "no limit" nature of hte IC business. Of course, he was proved wrong has the whole group took a header. His service seems to be more useful for raw research than actual stock recommendations (IMO). The best thing is probably to throw his reports in the hopper with the rest and begin your own DD. ESB

To: Ian@SI who wrote (5252)	5/4/1998 3:17:00 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Ian: I am still waiting for some bear to legitimately make the case that 1999 will be worse than 1998 in this sector. If one assumes that the market anticipates a recovery in this sector 6 to 12 months in advance of a significant change in fundamentals and assuming no market correction or bear market, that is the case the bears must sell in order to convince me that this sector is going to revisit the lows set this past December - January.

To: Ian@SI who wrote (5252)	5/4/1998 3:17:00 PM
From: Steve Patterson	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10921

I seem to recall Infrastructure being bullish on a majority of semis as of the exact August top (and even adding Speedfam to their model portfolio at $55, just after the secondary). I'm not sure I would use them as a contrarian indicator; the only thing I'm sure of is that the picture is less clear than either the hardcore bulls or bears think. I personally believe that Korea Inc., to get money, must export lots of chips (they lose money on most other things). Due to lack of cash they will not be as successful as they'd like, but not for lack of trying -- the alternative is to roll over and collapse entirely. How successful will they be? Perhaps it is to the advantage of shareholders in American semi-equips that they be less successful... in the short term this will mean trouble, but in the medium term, US and European manufacturers must fill the gap -- and their currencies, not being devalued, are more likely to buy US semi equipment, whereas the SE Asians will buy whatever they can locally, from other countries with devalued currency. It's a theory, anyway. I'm not sure if I believe it myself. Steve

To: Ian@SI who wrote (5252)	5/4/1998 3:58:00 PM
From: Fortinwit	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10921

Ian, I don't believe Infrastructure market themselves as 'market timers'. And since my philosophy for the semi-equips is to try and time the cycles, I don't use Infrastructure for timing purposes, overall. I have found the subscription extremely useful for opening my eyes to companies that would otherwise not be on my 'radar' screen. IDTI is an example of a company that Infrastructure are bullish on that I would have missed otherwise (as ASYT was in the past). The quality of their research on individual companies is unsurpassed. I do my own research to determine entry/exit points. I'm reticent to post confidential Infrastructure data because others have been warned in the past... but the performance of their Daily Note portfolio was up about 100% in 9/97 (from 1/97). Then down almost 30% off the September highs ending the year with ~ +30% (after the December down leg). Overall, I agree that many companies are at or near historical lows on a P/S, P/B or P/CF basis. My concern, still is my 'gut' which says there's another down leg to go; bookings have fallen of a cliff and sales going forward will (eventually) reflect this. I fear that 99 is not going to be year we've thought it was going to be. And I think this is what Infrastructure are saying. I remain pessimistic short term (e.g. KLIC, EGLS). But I'm thinking of initiating a 1/3rd position in ASYT because I find it's valuation so darn tempting. F. PS: As a longtime lurker, I have appreciated your fact-filled posts (as opposed to my own gut feelings).