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Gold/Mining/Energy : Silver prices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ray Hughes who wrote (1078)	5/6/1998 2:36:00 PM
From: TD	Respond to of 8010

Ray always a pleasure to read your insights. Been holding a long long time and will continue to hold for as long as it takes. I did sell some 12 1/2 calls on my PAASF remember that question to you a few weeks ago? Anyway it helps to get my cost basis down a little. Personally looking for downward pressure to mid May then a small rally in early July FWIW TD

To: Ray Hughes who wrote (1078)	5/6/1998 3:12:00 PM
From: Alan Whirlwind	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 8010

Ray, I've been accumulating scrap silver for many years. I agree with your analysis of the situation. It may well take 5 years. In my opinion when it happens, it will happen fast. The antique thing I'm not so sure about. When Rogers went about perfecting plated silver in antebellum times, eventually twenty pieces of utensils could be plated with one ounce of silver. Much of that older silverware is very worn and the first thing worn off, of course, is the silver. Some silverware is double, triple, or I suppose there must be 4X plated stuff, but even that extra silver must be balanced against the fact that modern silverware is one oz silver to 24 pieces. I just don't see people dumping their silverware for a few crumby dollars. It would take $10 silver and as for my hoard, I won't dump unless silver does something spectacular, like $20+ and I'll only change my mind if the yearly supply deficit trend changes. Also "antique" pieces of silverware generally sell from 50 cents to $3 or more dollars apiece so without $10+ silver I believe it won't interfere with the bullion market as a ready supply to fill the holes with. Nonetheless, it wouldn't surprise me if there were a few Jean Val-Jean's out there willing to dump their silver at any turn, but there probably aren't as many out there as one might think after the huge smelting of such articles from 1979-80. --Al

To: Ray Hughes who wrote (1078)	5/6/1998 3:29:00 PM
From: Mark Bartlett	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 8010

Ray, Thanks a lot for your words of wisdom - appreciated. I believe you were with PAA for a while ?? MB

To: Ray Hughes who wrote (1078)	5/6/1998 4:52:00 PM
From: Don S.Boller	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 8010

Ray: "THE BEST WAY TO MAKE MONEY IN COMMODITIES IS TO BE PATIENT..." You are absolutley correct! As an ex Shearson (now Smith Barney) commodities broker - I know what you say to be quite true. The money is made in the big swings (whether silver or sugar). The 'little" trader on minimum margin is always WIPED OUT...Sometimes it takes a while, but the lads on the floor eventually get 'em. One day on the floor of the exchanges (Merc, CBOE, etc.) would be an eye opening experience for the "sheep"........................ Thanks again for your insightful post Best, Don

To: Ray Hughes who wrote (1078)	5/6/1998 9:11:00 PM
From: Jordan Electron	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 8010

You are wrong about my superconductor story. That was a routine research patent disclosure, which had little effect on silver prices, but the stock of American Superconductor (AMSC) has been quite volatile, ranging from $8 to $18 to $13. If their inventions are deployed in large quantity, there will then be a major effect on silver prices, consumption, etc, as newer technology replaces old. The east coast ice storms this past winter that knocked out power so much in Maine and eastern Canada generate a need for the new technolgy to replace conventional transmission lines.

To: Ray Hughes who wrote (1078)	5/7/1998 12:09:00 PM
From: Raven McCloud	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 8010

Thanks Ray for your interesting analysis. I'm new to commodoties and silver and heard that Hathaway accumulated silver at the beginning of the year. Not sure if this has been mentioned on this board. Is this a good indication of a possible move in silver? Thanks, Michael

To: Ray Hughes who wrote (1078)	5/8/1998 3:48:00 PM
From: Casey	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 8010

Ray: <<Take it from a "guru" - most of the people writing about silver have very little understanding of a) commodities analysis, b) the silver scrap supply, c) price elasticity of supply from India, d) seasonal patterns, e) fundamentals of silver mining, f) scrap refinery capacity, g) production costs of incremental supply of primary silver, etc., etc.>> great post, but I have a question: - I just attended the Montreal Energy and Resource Conference. Paul Sarnoff was a speaker. Do you consider him to be in the know?