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Technology Stocks : Ultratech Stepper -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Ian@SI who wrote (2433)5/6/1998 5:20:00 PM
From: Scott Brooks  Respond to of 3696
 
I think the whole thing was pretty lame. Art Z took a not so well worn path: if you can't beat them (EUV LLC), form another LLC and join them.

To be honest, I am disappointed in myself for not reconciling the fact that a preannounced press conference could not possibly result in something worthwhile. I guess that mysterious PR agency thing kept my interest.

ESB



To: Ian@SI who wrote (2433)5/6/1998 6:48:00 PM
From: Donald Isenhower  Respond to of 3696
 
Ian,

Well since my interest in UTEK is long term, I see it as a positive step in keeping them as active players in the future. True, I could fantasize better news announcements, but one recurring line on UTEK has been the worries about how it will do as its larger feature size steppers become too many generations away from the latest and greatest stuff to remain in their spot of providing low-cost tools for the larger features they specialized in (of course these comments always ignored their other R&D projects that have been discussed for a long time on this thread). For long term health, I would rather see their cash spent on such R&D than going on a buying spree, and this is the type of investment that could pay off in longer term stability for the company.

So I guess I have a variation on your questions, which would be: What would the time-line look like on such a project and what resources will likely be required to pull it off.? i.e., does this agreement give UTEK the ability to do something it could never have done on its own?

Donald

note,
above comments should be disregarded for any trading purposes as they were said by a long who has likely let his desire for having picked a good long-term hold cause him to produce useless trading opinions......................



To: Ian@SI who wrote (2433)5/7/1998 1:46:00 AM
From: Kevin Firth  Read Replies (5) | Respond to of 3696
 
US Advanced Lithography press conference summary. I attended today's event with about 30 others. Art Zafiropoulo, Ultratech CEO, gave a 20 minute presentation (the notes are below) and answered the few questions that were asked. We received a white paper which I'll post once I get an electronic copy. Since it was a press conference, I was expecting camera flashes and reporters with hard hitting questions, instead it was a presentation to industry people mostly from the Dept of Energy, Dept of Commerce, SEMI and semi equip manufacturers. Art's goal was to present this endeavor directly to these people as opposed to having them hear about it via rumors.

United States Advanced Lithography (USAL) will be a jointly funded company with Ultratech providing $10 million (or just under 20%) of the initial $50 million necessary to fund a prototype system. The "just under 20%" allows UTEK to account this as an equity investment as opposed to an expense. Since this was just announced, USAL still needs to raise the other $40 million which Art hopes to do this year. Its still "embryonic". He stated that UTEK has $160M and could have fully funded it, but investors wouldn't want to take the R&D losses for so long. USAL's success would be financially significant for its members including UTEK. Wall Street agrees with USAL's direction and thinks there are bigger risks in medical technology than USAL. USAL may get funding from a major investment bank. It is open to US companies only. No foreign investment allowed.

After developing the first beta system with the initial $50 million, USAL plans to go public in 2000 to raise the funds for production. Production machines will be available around 2002 and cost $15-20M each. Art stressed the importance of lithography leadership and that it also involves everything it touches like track. If the U.S. can lead lithography it will grab large marketshare in these related areas as well.

"The mission of the USAL is two fold. First, to assist in the development of EUV technology, and second, to become the primary systems integrator that provides EUV lithography systems to the global market. Although USAL is led by Ultratech, which provided the initial funding, the company is open to any leading US semiconductor manufacturers that wish to make an investment to participate. Ultimately, the goal is to include other industry leaders such as Silicon Valley Group, Applied Materials, KLA-Tencor, Lam Research and Novellus." --white paper excerpt

Art is currently acting president of USAL, but plans to hire a permanent president soon (he has his own company to run). UTEK's global organization will be used by USAL to maximize technology funding and minimize overhead expenses.

I was delighted to meet Art for the first time. He gave me all the time I needed to discuss my questions. Those good things we've heard about him are true. The investor relations rep talked with me for 15 minutes before the presentation. I was very impressed with UTEK's responsiveness to shareholders.

PRESENTATION OUTLINE

Note: words in brackets are my notes from Arts speech.

BACKGROUND

Industry & Government worked cooperatively under CRADA agreements to develop fundamental EUV lithography technology (approximately $30M investment) [Plus $30M from industry, UTEK was single largest contributor: $6M]

IC industry [led by Intel] formed EUV LLC to fund continued R&D and building of prototype EUV tool (approximately $250M investment) [USAL signed contract with EUV LLC on April 15]

Semiconductor industry has concluded that EUV is one of the leading candidates for next generation lithography--chips would be 100 times faster and store 1,000 times more information than today's [Its still not clear whether EUV or scalpal will win, but assuming that the known technical problems can be resolved, it comes down to EUV's 60 wafers/hr throughput versus scalpal's 40 wafers/hr.]

The development cost and resultant revenue stream is very large relative to any single stepper manufacturer today

National Labs can develop much of the basic technology, but stepper industry participation is needed for sound tool design and commercialization

Ultratech has formed the USAL LLC as an additional U.S manufacturer of EUV tools [the other is SVG.]

SCOPE AND OBJECTIVES

Design, engineer and manufacture Beta Tools for EUV lithography

Produce sufficient volume of steppers to satisfy domestic market demand, specifically the early needs of EUV LLC members

Attract strong member companies from U.S. semiconductor equipment manufacturers such as Applied Materials, KLA-Tencor, Lam Research, etc. [possibly photoresist companies, chip companies, and venture capitalists. None of these companies mentioned have been approached yet.]

Utilize talents/assets of member companies where possible, supplement where necessary

OVERVIEW OF DEVELOPMENT AND MANUFACTURING PHILOSOPHY

Rely on member companies to develop and manufacture subsystems when possible (e.g. stage, laser, plasma generator, optical components, coating, reticles...) [UTEK core technology is reflective optics necessary for EUV. There's no objections to licensing technology to 3rd parties]

Primary functions of USAL LLC will be system integration, test, marketing, sales & service

Benefit U.S. suppliers, IC manufacturers, defense needs and component technology development [bring marketshare back to the U.S.]

FUNDING FOR PROTOTYPE SYSTEM

Beta Tool Design, Fabrication and Test = $35M
Production Design, Modeling, Planning = $5M
Licenses and Other Expenses = $10M

TOTAL = $50M

[$50M is not the end, but the beginning of a huge investment]

<193nm LITHO TOOL MARKET FORECAST

[This is a graph based on data from Intel and SEMATECH 9/97. It shows # of EUV system and approximate revenue.]

year, systems, revenue
2000, 0, $0
2005, 180, $3B
2010, 600, $10B

PROJECTED SALES AND PROFIT (2002-2010)

Total Sales = $40B
Gross Profit = $6B
Licenses and Royalties = $2B
Net Profit = $4B
Compound Return on $250M investment = 32%

[end of presentation]

The USAL logo looks like a perforated stamp with a red, white and blue flag and "USAL" across the top. A star sits between the S and A. USAL has no web site at this time to direct you to.

[All disclaimers regarding errors and omissions apply]




To: Ian@SI who wrote (2433)5/7/1998 9:44:00 AM
From: Katherine Derbyshire  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 3696
 
>> Am I missing something? This sounds like a research project that may or may not
produce a product that may or may not be sold about 10 years from now; and that
will suck up some R&D from more near term opportunities; and that won't
produce any revenues or earnings in my lifetime.<<

Hey, that's the semiconductor biz! :-)

The thing to remember about this and other R&D expenditures is that you have to invest now in order to have "near term opportunities" 10 years from now. In the recent round of bad earnings news, you'll notice that not one company said they were cutting R&D, and most went out of their way to emphasize that R&D would be preserved. Research takes a *long* time.

As for EUV specifically, it seems to be developing momentum. Recent papers from the technical conferences seem to be shifting from "can it be done at all?" to "how can it be done at a reasonable cost?" That shift from a basic science mentality to an engineering mentality is always a good sign.

Katherine