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Strategies & Market Trends : Electronic Contract Manufacture (ECM) Sector -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Asymmetric who wrote (1508)	5/8/1998 8:51:00 AM
From: solderman.com	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2542

I've been told my my broker that he will reserve his full allotment for me. The problem is not knowing how much that represents. Should know more as IPO date approaches. My gut is that this offering will increase the profile of the whole EMS industry and set off a new wave of investor interest in the stocks of the bigger players. Solderman

To: Asymmetric who wrote (1508)	5/9/1998 6:02:00 PM
From: kolo55	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 2542

Motley Fool rack-up on ECM stocks If you have Adobe Acrobat Reader installed on your machine (its free), you can read a recent Fool sector rack-up on the ECM sector. Here is the site (click on the File highlighted): fool.com I am not a fan of the Motley Fool analyses. I purchased their year-end sector review last December, and their favorite ECM stock was Plexus at 26-27. They managed to pick one of the poorer performers in the sector over the last six months. This time they did a better job, feeling Jabil was the best buy (at the time the analysis was done, it was April 7, and JBIL was 30). Good call. But their spreadsheet numbers are all messed up again. They love to do their analysis looking through a rearview mirror, and this gets them into all kinds of difficulty. For example, they used annual revenues of $805M for Flextronics in their analysis. This is totally misleading, since the latest run rate for Flextronics is $1320M, and any reasonable review of forward revenues will result in an estimate of $1600M to $1800M. ( See my post on the Flextronics thread for my projections:) Message 4394796 The practice of analyzing current stock prices based only on trailing numbers in the ECM is misleading at best, and irresponsible at worst. This sector is growing very fast, and acquisitions and expansions are a major part of the picture. If you ding a company because of the high debt and shares outstanding, then don't give any credit for the revenue and earnings stream that debt and shares were used to purchase, the resulting analysis is laughable. Even with their favorite pick, Jabil, one of the main reasons to purchase Jabil is to partcipate in new outsourced contracts that are likely to come Jabil's way. (see latest post on Jabil thread:) Message 4393249 These forward looking projections are key to the stock selection process. I guess what can you expect, when they try to present a "cookbook" approach that any idiot can use to pick stocks. Well, its interesting reading never the less, with some good quotes from Sansone at Jabil. Paul