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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Toby who wrote (5339)	5/8/1998 12:18:00 PM
From: Joseph Beltran	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

The geopolitical and geoeconomical events that took place in s.e. asia since July of last year are the reasons why AMAT tumbled and is trading in the manner in which it has been. If you are trying to prognosticate what's in store for amat and other semi-equipment manufacturers, doesn't it make sense to stay on top of what's going on in the part of the world? Korea is the 11th largest economy in the world; Japan the second. I'm not sure about Taiwan but it should rank way up there. While Indonesia may not account for much in the way of semi-equipment imports, its stability (both political and economic) is vital to the entire region. There are over 200 million people in Indonesia and any civic unrest or economic turmoil will impact neighboring countries. Collectively, s.e. accounts for over 50% of amat's sales. If a change in perception in the outlook for these companies is going to occur it will be triggered by events which occur over there first, not here. Samsung and Mitsubishi and others may claim that they intend to spend $$$$ on capital equipment in the future but I have long learned to see what they actually do, not what they say. The events over there are telling me that it's way too premature to expect a "recovery" in amat's uptrend. I like AMAT for many fundamental reasons but the timing is still not right. Just my 2cents worth. regards