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Technology Stocks : Adaptec (ADPT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mark who wrote (2153)	5/13/1998 6:28:00 PM
From: Jay Lowe	Respond to of 5944

Well, we've seen an active process in calling the downside ... all the way from 20 to 15 ... I would be pretty interested in seeing someone match a curve to those estimates! ;-)

To: Mark who wrote (2153)	5/14/1998 2:20:00 AM
From: Larry J.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5944

Mark, honestly, I have not done nearly as much due diligence as I probably should have considering that ADPT is now my #2 hold. (ASND #1) Sorry, I can't back my bullish assertions for a turnaround with a technical argument. You guys (You, Torben et al) are doing a fantastic job of addressing technical, product longevity, and related issues as they pertain, and it is greatly appreciated. While it's very possible that I am looking at this thing through rose colored glasses, I do not believe that ADPT is anywhere near as down and out as one would assume given the current share price. My position is really founded in a couple of areas: I was influenced to increase my position by the disclosure that Kevin Landis, manager of the Tech. Value Fund (TVFQX) increased his ADPT shares to 750K (from 50K) during the month of March. ADPT vaulted to become the funds 4th largest holding. . Landis has a hell of a track record, and "preaches" bandwidth and "bandwidth management".........sound familiar? I do not follow Landis' movements blindly, but this move was so significant(increased holdings 14x in a month) it can't go unnoticed. Simply, I'm confident that a company the size of ADPT has reached the critical mass necessary to where they will develop or purchase the technology necessary to compete and adapt with the changing demands of their marketplace. They seem to have their finger in a lot of different pots. I do not sense complacency from a technology company that has completed three acquisitions in as many months. I felt very comfortable after listening to the conference call. If I recall, management spoke to substantial growth in the 2nd half (FY'99) following two more quarters of flat growth. The turnaround strategy seems well founded, and given ADPT's strong track record and execution I think they have to be given a degree of credibility. There are also signs of the disc drive industry is beginning its recovery which should help reinvigorate this segment of ADPT's business and bolster the share price. I think the CFO is being ultra conservative in this area of their business. May be a "sandbag" here! Upgrades of the DD industry in general and sector specific companies should have a positive peripheral impact. QNTM and SEG were just upped, and RDRT just made positive comments from the SSB conference in NYC. That being said, I wish I knew where the bottom was on this damn stock! I added another 20% this morning @ 18 1/8. (basis now around $21) I'll probably commit to one more purchase given the opportunity at <$17, and then hang on and wait for the ride back up! From the .98 First Call estimate, we're trading 18.3x FY '99 (March) earnings. Coming off of a .20 quarter, there is little growth built into earnings, (especially if this doesn't include Symbios) which, barring a fr%^#&$n disaster should be a slam dunk. I still think this is a perfect set-up to garnish upgrades and estimate revisions (w FY2000 numbers). I'd be very surprised (and extremely pissed!)to see ADPT trade below 16x, or 15 11/16 per share! Conversely, ADPT is drifting lower on what seems like a news void. It won't take but a little good news to have people rushing into this stock afraid to miss out. ADPT will take some patience, but, IMO they will be a survivor, and this one will bounce (hard). The greatest returns will come from those of us that bought into the fear. Regards, Larry