Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: shane forbes who wrote (19427)	5/13/1998 10:19:00 PM
From: jtechkid	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

first, this is the first time that wall street has reduced eps and in general support amat right across the board no matter that they missed the street next quarter considerable. the main fact people are missing is past downturns have been characterized by problems with pc demand on dram problem not a complete meltdown of 30% of the worlds population. i like to buy stocks when wall street throws the stock out and their is little anticipation with the company. wall street loves amat no matter what they do. which i guess is good for the bulls but i would use stop loss in case you see a fallout. good luck.

To: shane forbes who wrote (19427)	5/13/1998 10:21:00 PM
From: Katherine Derbyshire	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

>>Thanks but that 32 is really quite amazing. Last year it was 28.5 billion and then after the 1 billion mis-count, it was corrected to 27.5 billion. This means that with 32 billion they are expecting a 16% increase in spending in cap. exp. I find that incredible to believe!<< Hmmm... Could be we're using different yen-dollar conversion factors. The numbers I'm using are from ICE and IC Insights, who quote $32.8 billion in 1997 and predict $32.1 billion in 1998. (2% decrease, not 16% growth) They also put the 1997 total of the top ten at about $18.4 billion, which makes a total of $32 billion look reasonable. However, all these numbers are at an end-1997 rate of 117 yen = 1 dollar. Adjusting down to today's 133 yen = 1 dollar may wipe out most of the difference right there. Even more of the difference goes away if the Lehman numbers don't include test/assembly equipment (these numbers do include it), which is far less connected to fab construction. Katherine PS Food for thought, or nightmares if you're a forecaster. Just 1 300 mm fab built or canceled potentially represents a $2 billion swing in the global equipment market.