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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim Patterson who wrote (44104)	5/21/1998 1:41:00 PM
From: Chuzzlewit	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 176387

Jim, you are really off the mark here. The reason that a "whisper number" exists is that analysts' numbers are not the result of analysis (how's this for an oxymoron: stock analyst). So the real analysis is done and a whisper number arrived at independent of these guys. It is not the result of just adding x% to the consensus. TTFN, CTC

To: Jim Patterson who wrote (44104)	5/21/1998 1:54:00 PM
From: rdwng	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

Jim, This is my first response as I am a big time lurker but find value in reading many of these posts. Wouldn't whisper numbers always be higher than consensus? (Just look at what this site came up with, granted with a bullish tint.) If one looks at the report independently from the analysts, it is quite glowing. I wonder if MD came out in the middle of last quarter and gave indications that earnings would be in the .35-.40 range, how much would the stock have tanked then rocketted when earnings were issued? Keep in mind the earnings of the competition!! Redwing

To: Jim Patterson who wrote (44104)	5/21/1998 2:11:00 PM
From: JRI	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 176387

JP- You wrote: <<If appearent trend in DELLs abality to beat numbers continues, it will report below EPS Ests in another quarter or two.>> Please, please quit being so sloppy with your characterizations, classification of existing data! You are being misleading! Over the past 4 quarters: Quarter ending % of surprise July 97 8.8 October 97 6.15 January 98 7.1 April 98 5.2 From here, Dell could just as easily pop up to a 6,7,8 % (or more) surprise as drop to a 3-4 % surprise next quarter. How you deduce this data indicates an "apparent trend" which means Dell will report below EPS estimates in the next quarter (or subsequent quarter), is beyond me. You are free to guess this. But the data does not support a good argument for this. Please quit manipulating data to support your views. Any statistician would take you to school for such a characterization! (Your argument reminds me why I hated faculty meetings at the university I used to work at..) Any real analyst, statisticians would put the latest % upside surprise "within the margin of error" rhelm, and would be not support your view..... Let me give you an example which indicates that there is some trouble, indicating some sort of trend: Compaq, 16 million dollars in profit, 1c per share EPS.... HP- no profit on PC sales in 1Q IBM- Little or no profit on PC sales in 1Q THAT, MY FRIEND, IS A TREND! For now, I think you should shelve this argument until after the next earnings announcement! I'm sure, however, you will keep working hard trying to make mountains out of molehills! (BTW- I will be the first to congradulate you when you have picked up on a clear, discernable trend that indicates a fundamental loss in value of Dell. Thanx for your continued efforts!)

To: Jim Patterson who wrote (44104)	5/21/1998 2:59:00 PM
From: Fangorn	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 176387

Jim, Whether a company beats estimates or not has nothing, ZERO, to do with how well a company is doing. If analysts get better at figuring out how a company will do thereby coming closer in their estimate it certainly doesn't mean the company failed in any way. Are you saying that because the estimates were closer to the actual this time the company did something wrong? If so you are full of hooey. If you wanted to talk about revenue or earnings growth rates that would be one thing but this constant patter about not beating the estimate by as much as they did before is nothing but a canard you keep throwing out, probably because search as hard as you can you have found absolutely nothing in the report that you can twist to back your thesis.