Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Michael Sphar who wrote (4000)	5/29/1998 11:16:00 AM
From: Lee	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9980

Re: IMF Japan rescue package What will be the IMF prescription for Japan when their financial crisis reaches the extent seen elsewhere in Asia? Regards, Lee

To: Michael Sphar who wrote (4000)	5/29/1998 11:32:00 AM
From: Lee	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9980

Re: Japan exchange rates Assume the financial crisis away for the moment.. Based on industrial competitiveness what do we believe is the long range Yen exchange rate. My take is that it is a lot closer to 110 than 140. Yet we will probably see 160 or more before all is said and done. I most certainly believe that the problems are financial in nature due to irrational lending and investing decisions. I think this has forced exchange rates to veer from what industrial competitiveness would dictate. Best wishes, Lee

To: Michael Sphar who wrote (4000)	5/29/1998 11:37:00 AM
From: MikeM54321	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9980

>>Japan does not have the local resources to build a sustainable local economy, so the conventional wisdom goes.<< You forgot to mention that Japan doesn't have the population to build a "sustainable local economy." I wish I could quote the numbers, but I forget where I read them. Maybe I read them in the morbid, "World Socialist Web Site" article. I'll check....nope. Found it in the Atlantic Monthly article. Here's some very interesting information. When Japan began it's stunning revival after WWII, it had one of the highest birth rates in the industrialized world. It has steadily fallen and is now at a critical point. Only 1.43 births per woman, well below replacement level. Fewer babies were born in 1995 than in any year since 1899. Two-thirds of Japanese women between 20 and 30 have never married. Last year the number of Japanese over 65 exceeded the number under 15. Japan is one of the oldest societies on Earth. It's population will peak at around 127 million in a few years and then begin a long decline. Meanwhile Japan's arch rival, China is exactly where Japan was after WWII except a whooping ten times bigger! >>It appears to me the crux of the problem for Japan is their lack of transparency in financial dealings which allowed for mistakes to be made and then fester for years of denial, both in Japan and elsewhere as in Indonesia.<< Well said. Japan did nothing more than any self-respecting exporting nation would do. They just botched up the financing and forgot about a competitor called, China.<--Understatement! MikeM(From Florida)