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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jess Beltz who wrote (5645)	6/3/1998 1:11:00 AM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

jess, you said >I agree with them [Infrastructure] that the killer application of the moment is the Internet. I think few would deny that. The current generation of microprocessors can handle internet usage just fine.< Many intelligent posters have taken this stance recently. That's why I think it will be proven wrong. After all, the main function of the market is to make us look like asses.<G> GM

To: Jess Beltz who wrote (5645)	6/3/1998 2:06:00 AM
From: Paul Dieterich	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Jess, In response to... What then of semiconductor equipment companies? Everything will have IC's. This movement involves much more than DRAM and MPU's, or even telecommunications. That's why I (sadly) sold half of my Intel today, to move to a larger cash position to scoop semi-equip makers going on sale now. Sure, we'll have to wait 6-12 months. Did you see the posting from Jurgis, immediately previous to yours? Note bold type: SGS-Thomson sees semiconductor upturn By Corinne Bernstein May 18, 1998, TechWeb News Aix Les Bains, France- SGS-Thomson Microelectronics predicts that the worldwide semiconductor industry will grow a scant 6% in 1998, but sees the ingredients for gradual improvement later this year. "A few years ago, we said that the current cycle was the worst, and we are confirming that," said Jean-Philippe Dauvin, group vice president and chief economist for SGS-Thomson, at a press briefing here last week. Price pressure and overcapacity, soft demand in the Asia-Pacific region, a slowing of exports from that region to Japan, and a softening in U.S. production of PCs led to a disappointing first quarter for the industry, after only 4% growth in 1997 and a 9% decline in 1996. Market growth should resume in the second half of the year as a result of a better balance between supply and demand, and because of gains in production of electronic equipment, Dauvin said. By the end of 1998, non-DRAM production capacity will be in line with demand, but the supply-demand equation will remain unfavorable for DRAM makers, he said. Chip makers in Japan and other Far East countries have cut capital spending, while U.S. and European vendors have increased or maintained their capital expenditures, Dauvin said. The worldwide semiconductor industry's capital investments will drop 14% this year, after a 10% decline in 1997 and a 13% gain in 1996. Dauvin warned, however, that companies falling behind in their capital expenditures will lose market share. The semiconductor industry will need to add 35 fabs a year to accommodate growth in the next few years, said Joe Grenier, vice president of the semiconductor sector at San Jose-based Dataquest Inc., who also spoke at the SGS-Thomson press briefing. He predicted that the market for electronic equipment will expand to $1.25 trillion in 2002 from $910 billion in 1997, and that semiconductor sales will nearly double to $288 billion from $147 billion. The computer, communications, and consumer-electronics equipment markets will continue to account for 70% of semiconductor demand, but computers will represent a smaller share in the years to come, Grenier said. The new drivers of the semiconductor market in the next five years will be digital video, smart cards, automotive multimedia, digital mobile phones, computer peripherals, automotive powertrain devices, and digital networking, Dauvin and Grenier said. Copyright (c) 1998 CMP Media Inc.

To: Jess Beltz who wrote (5645)	6/3/1998 6:44:00 AM
From: JZGalt	Respond to of 10921

I would like to offer one more thought on why it might be prudent to wait a bit before jumping in to semi equipment stocks full bore. Don't forget we have 2nd quarter window dressing coming up in 2 weeks or so. The darlings the mutual fund managers bought on the hopes of a V shaped recovery in the Spring might get sold quickly as we approach June 30th.

To: Jess Beltz who wrote (5645)	6/3/1998 8:20:00 AM
From: Mason Barge	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 10921

<<what appears to be compelling valuation in a historical sense may not be entirely relevant at the present moment. >> Guarantee, in the long run (3+ years), the cycle will come back up. Semiconductor equipment will not be "commoditized" in our lifetime. There are paradigm shifts in almost every area, even while the current generation of products is still being improved constantly. Every time this sector gets high (i.e. last September or so) the market seems to totally forget the downside. Very few people even thought about what the problems in Asia were going to do for capitalization of semi fabs. Every time the sector gets low, you hear this "not going to return this time" idea voiced. Say it loud and say it proud: "Semiconductor equipment stocks are undervalued right now and are going to double in value sometime in the next three years."