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Technology Stocks : NEXTEL -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bernie Diamond who wrote (6502)	6/3/1998 10:12:00 PM
From: Ed Pittman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10227

Bernie.. Predicting the future can be a humble experience. We all never know. And I guess that is what makes a market...I will gain nothing if it breaks below..So, I would like to see it hold this area. And jump on for a run up to July. Readings for Tuesday was 44,100 more sellers than buyers Wed. was 6,000 more buyers than sellers. Yes, Bernie something would have to be wrong for it to break, 22 and head to 15.. I still like the company and I also like the product. What was that old football saying...Hold that line!!! Regards, Ed

To: Bernie Diamond who wrote (6502)	6/3/1998 10:20:00 PM
From: Tavros	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10227

Bernie, Although I am sitting in the same place you sit (and not on the fence), I must agree with Ed. Yes, it is conceivable that NXTL hits $15. How probable though is another story. Put it differently, how probable is that the market drops 40 to 50% from current levels by July, August or October or December? I would say that, barring a major catastrophy somewhere in the world, with major effects on the US economy, not probable (i.e., <1% probability - I leave it to the mathematicians to work out the precise probability associated with a 6-7 standard deviation event). This is what it would take to get NXTL to $15 from its current levels, given the punishment it has received from its highs. At the end of the day, valuations (and prices) are relative. We know, for example, that NXTL sells at or about par with is POP valuation (relative to other wireless entities with, by the way, much less APRU. We also know that NXTL is cheap in terms of a multiple (15x) of its 1999 EBIDTA. So, for the price of NXTL to get down to $15, either the market's whole valuation has to come down (higher interest rates? - not), or the wireless industry valuation to come down further from the currently punished levels, or NXTL must really screw things up and have no positive 1999 EBIDTA. I am sorry but unless one does not assume one of the above scenarios, then $15 is a long-distanced dream for the shorts that will never come true. If on the other hand, NXTL screws up that badly, then the joke is on us. I am personally comfortable with this bet. Now, if Ed can add something substansive based on facts, logic, or other data, apart from vodoo scaremongering while he is shorting NXTL (oops, I am sorry, sitting on the fence), he is welcome. Logical (from time to time) Tavros