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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (20756)	6/20/1998 11:19:00 AM
From: HairBall	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Stagflation, is that sort of like major recession/depresion through inflation? I used to be a member/subcriber of the Foundation for the Study of Cycles. They identified an 18 year cycle in real estate. (9up, 9 down) How many years has it been since NYC real estate topped? I just recently relocated back to Texas. The DFW area. I was transferred out in the early eighties (82). Before the big Texas bust. Building cranes were everywhere. DFW area (Texas) has cranes everywhere again. Not quite eighteen years, but closing. Regards, LG PS: US RE markets cycle pivot points vary per region!

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (20756)	6/20/1998 11:23:00 AM
From: bearshark	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

Haim: I have run a number of scenarios through my head and they are all plausible. However, I am not sure if any one scenario will occur by itself. I think we will have a combination. I certainly have no idea what will happen. I am not completely sold on the idea that SE Asia will come back. There are indications that some difficult decisions are being made in S. Korea. For example, this week they have started to make decisions on non-viable companies within their chaebols. During the initial "Asian crisis" last Fall, I felt that S. Korea would have to eliminate a number of companies that were failing. They are now moving in that direction. Maybe they can make it work. Japan, on the other hand, may have more problems. Unfortunately, they are the engine of the SE Asian economy. Can they deal with the losses in the banking system; will their populace consume goods at a greater rate; will they try to salvage themselves by exporting entirely? These are a few of the questions that could be asked about the Japanese economy. I have no idea about the answers. Will China give in at the end of the year and devalue their currency. Several months ago they had been talking about a nice "controlled" and polite devaluation at the end of this year. Can a devaluation be controlled? Pennies are being thrown into the world financial market in an attempt to fine tune the value of the yen. Dollars were sold to bolster the yen. However, how will the dollar deal with the Euro in the world financial system? There are too many variables to really understand. However, people never change. It is why I place my bets on the people in the market.