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Microcap & Penny Stocks : ALYA Cost cutting system via software as well as security -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jane Hafker who wrote (1119)	7/3/1998 1:58:00 PM
From: Glen Abbey	Respond to of 2534

Jane, I know of what you speak. I have a number of those showing book based losses. IMHO, I don't see the same pattern here. The others peaked and began to fall back little by little without volume. Interest had waned and there were few if any buyers. ALYA seems to have competing forces. New buyers seem to come in and the price moves up rapidly. When buying slows, the MM's torpedo it to shake loose shares. I have yet to get filled trying to add at the lower levels on a limit order. I think the MM's are accumulating to prepare for the momentum that finally breaks through the 1.35 resistance level. When that happens, hopefully they will take their profits and leave us alone.

To: Jane Hafker who wrote (1119)	7/3/1998 2:05:00 PM
From: DrMedina1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2534

Right, Glen. If ALYA were a typical BB, it would be at .25 already. It's not, and such things will not come to pass ever, IMHO.

To: Jane Hafker who wrote (1119)	7/3/1998 3:40:00 PM
From: Claude Cormier	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 2534

Jane, When evaluating a company and its stock, you need to know two things: 1) The company fundamentals including: market sector, products, partners, potential...etc... 2) at what value the market is pricing the company, in other words, the stock's market capitalization. Many new BB:OTC offering starts with market caps of a few millions and can balloon to market caps of $50M or more on promotion alone. With a good concept and strong promotion (if not hype), you can have a stock with a market cap as high as $100M even if you have no sales and few assets. That is why most of them come back down to the $5M-$20M market cap range after the initial frenzy. ALya fundamentals are well know. They have been explained on this thread. World class partners. Solid and experienced management. A sexy and promising high teck product. A few sales that confirm the validity of the products..and a growing organization including its worldwide distributor network. (keep in mind here that the capacity to attract worldwide distributors of the quality Alya has assembled and to regularly add to this list, is a sign that their products are wanted). The market value of Alya is now $12M and even at its peak in April never exceeded $20M. IMO, we have yet to see any kind of frenzy in this stock. I don't think that the stock can go to .25. This would mean a market cap of less than $3M and would not be in synch with the fundamentals. Can it go to $0.50 or $.75..well possibly...but everybody doubts it. Those who understand the fundamentals are buying at the current levels. Of course if we get no news in the next 2-3 months and there is no announcement confirming the forecasted sales for the current year or other big news, some investor might start asking questions and may sell their stock...but for now, everything seems on track. I suggest you take a long term approach and follow the progress of the company. Evaluate periodically what has been achieved.. This is a real company with a strategic plan, good products and large potential. Will they succeed ? Well that is another question. That is why investing in small company in the development stage is always a high risk/high reward proposition. On a technical basis, I think the stock is forming a base in the $0.93-$1.30 range. This trading range is in place since the peak in April. If the company is successful and achieved its plan over the balance of the year, I feel strongly we will have $2-$3 before year end. And assuming the plan is on target as well in 1999...well $5-$10 before Y2K is my bet. On the other hand, if their progress is slow and they fell behind their goal.(e.g. they do not announced anything significant in the next 2-3 months)..then a set back to the pre-April level of $0.50-$0.60 is likely. I bought yesterday at $1.01...so you now where my heart is. CC

To: Jane Hafker who wrote (1119)	7/12/1998 10:20:00 AM
From: John S. Baker	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 2534

Jane, nobody really knows the exact answer to your question ... which is a very valid one. But here IMHO are two pieces of the real answer. 1. The 52-week price range has a bottom of 44 cents. 'Tis true that every day, some stocks break their 52-week lows, but I would be less comfortable with holding ALYA if the 52-week low were, say, 5 cents. 2. One of my favorite techniques to guesstimate where support and resistance prices lie is called Price-to-Volume charting. There is a site which computes these automatically for you. Bear with me, because it really takes longer to tell how to do it than it takes to actually do it. Go to: bigcharts.com Key in the stock symbol in the left frame. From the pull-down marked "uppper indicator", select "Price to Volume". Pick what you want from the "lower indicator" pull-down; I set "Money Flow" as my default because it gives me a glimpse of whether so-called smart money is flowing into or out of the stock. Now click on "draw" and you'll see the chart. What we see here is a correlation between number of shares which changed hands and the price at which they changed hands ... summed over the time frame selected (12 months is default). In ALYA's case, it shows that the greatest number of shares bought during the past year were bought at about 50 cents. This is in spite of the high volumes experienced during the recent runup. Second greatest were bought in the 60 cents range ... hardly any shares at all in the 70 cents range. Also, since the runup (change your "time frame" to 3 months and redraw the chart), there is a relatively even distribution of buying prices between 90 cents and 1.30 I bought a small stake at about $1.30 ... silly me! ... and am holding it. But I look at these two charts and say: if the price drops much below .90, then there is precious little support until roughly 60 cents. But I see a lot of support at the 50 cents level, so I think your question about the possibility of seeing .25 cents is a less likely outcomes. A trader might say to himself, "If ALYA drops below 80 cents, I'm outa here!" Quite frankly, if it drops below 50 cents, I would probably bail, because there would be nothing stopping it until it reached zero. Others may see different potential outcomes. And I'm sure that traders have far more precise mechanisms for timing their bail-out points. Price-to-volume charting gives an overview ... a macro perspective ... rather than a micro one. Hope this helps you with your Due Diligence. JSb.