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Biotech / Medical : PFE (Pfizer) How high will it go? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Anthony Wong who wrote (3970)	7/6/1998 10:24:00 PM
From: BigKNY3	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9523

Big News from IMS "Most Successful Product Launch Recorded". Have PFun! BigKNY3 IMS HEALTH Forecasts Viagra Sales to Reach $1 Billion In First Year; Most Successful Product Launch Recorded PLYMOUTH MEETING, Pa., July 6 /PRNewswire/ -- Completing its first three months in the U.S. market, Pfizer's male impotence drug, Viagra, continues to set new records. Total prescriptions dispensed for the three months were 2.9 million, with sales estimated at $259.5 million and forecasted to reach $1 billion by March 1999, according to IMS HEALTH. Also, demand for the product remains high despite lower than typical third-party coverage -- 40 percent for Viagra versus 76 percent for all prescription drugs. IMS HEALTH is the world's leading provider of information solutions to the pharmaceutical and healthcare industries. Product Launch a Record ''Sales for Viagra set a new record for any prescription drug launch at $182.2 million in the first two months,'' noted Myron Holubiak, general manager of The Plymouth Group, the consulting arm of IMS HEALTH. It was nearly double the sales of 1997's top five products combined for their respective first two months. The leading drug launches of 1997 included Lipitor, Rezulin, Aricept, Viracept and Levaquin. The first two-months sales for these five products combined was $94 million. Lipitor, launched in January of 1997, held first place among this group and had sales of $12.4 million during its first two months. The number one 1997 product in sales for its first two months was Rezulin, at $28.1 million. Third Party Coverage Lowest in Class Third-party coverage for Viagra has been relatively low from the outset. During its initial weeks in the marketplace, 50 percent of all Viagra prescriptions dispensed were being paid entirely out-of-pocket with the other 50 percent receiving some level of third-party coverage. By the middle of Viagra's second month, the mix had shifted to 59 percent out-of-pocket and 41 percent third-party. For the U.S. pharmaceutical market overall, only 24 percent of the total prescriptions dispensed are paid for entirely out-of- pocket. Seventy-six percent receive some level of third-party payment. ''We predicted from the outset, that Viagra would be successful regardless of third-party coverage,'' stated Holubiak. ''It is a quality of life product with immediate value to its users. Yet it seems that third-party pay organizations don't place as much value on sexuality as a part of health status as do their members or beneficiaries. However, because of the importance of sexual function to the health and well-being perceived by individuals, we believe Viagra will continue to receive strong demand.'' Among all sexual function disorder products, prescriptions for Viagra also are receiving the lowest third-party coverage. Current figures for Viagra reveal that only 40 percent of the prescriptions dispensed are receiving third-party coverage, with the majority, 60 percent, being paid entirely out- of-pocket. These figures contrast sharply with the leading competing products, Muse and Caverject, as well as with oral contraceptives. The percentage of the prescriptions dispensed for Muse and Caverject currently receiving third-party coverage are 78 percent and 68 percent respectively. For oral contraceptives, 56 percent of the 64.5 million prescriptions dispensed in 1997 had some level of third-party payment coverage, with 44 percent paid for entirely out-of-pocket. Prescriber Profile Switched Early -- Primary Care Dominates During its initial weeks on the market, 42 percent of the prescriptions dispensed for Viagra were written by urologists, with 34 percent by primary care physicians (including internists and endocrinologists). By the end of the first month, this mix shifted with 32 percent of the prescriptions being written by urologists and 48 percent by primary care physicians. For recent weeks, the mix has been 26 percent and 55 percent respectively. For Muse, it is the opposite profile with 52 percent by written urologists and 35 percent by primary care physicians. The difference as compared to Caverject is even greater with 68 percent of its prescriptions written by urologists and 20 percent by primary care physicians. ''Viagra is a much more convenient dosage form than the other agents, allowing primary care physicians to become more involved in this type of therapy,'' Holubiak commented. ''The subject of sexual function appears to now have become a part of the general medical interview, and primary care physicians are recognizing that they must be ready to address it.'' Initial Patient Profile Consistent with Market Overall Early figures, from the patient anonymous data studied, reveal that the age profile of Viagra users is comparable to the mix prior to Viagra's introduction. For its first two months, approximately 42 percent of the patients were 40 to 59 years old, the same as it was for the pre-Viagra market. Approximately three percent of the patients are 20 to 39 years old, 12.9 percent 60 to 64 years old, and 28.5 percent 65 to 74 years old. Total Prescriptions Decrease; Refill Growth Continues The total prescriptions dispensed for Viagra's third month in the U.S. market were estimated at 1.0 million as compared to 598,000 and 1.25 million for the first and second months respectively. The total number of prescriptions dispensed for the last two weeks of June held steady at 219,458 for the week ending June 19 and 217,625 for the week ending June 26. While the total number of prescriptions dispensed declined May to June, the number of refills continues to grow. For the week ending June 26, the total number of refill prescriptions for Viagra continued their uninterrupted increase reaching 75,748 for the week as compared to 67,689 for the prior week. The earlier Viagra refills were 63,323 and 64,781 for the week ending June 5 and June 12 respectively. The average number of pills per prescription has remained fairly steady at 8.5, which is below the more than 10 pills per prescription during Viagra's initial weeks on the market (NOTE: Actual number of pills in a prescription is a whole number, as partial tablets are not dispensed). ''A key barometer to measure the market demand and acceptance of Viagra will be the refill rate of prescriptions,'' Holubiak remarked. ''It provides insight into how consumers like the results and how they are reacting to news about the product. The time it takes a consumer to decide to get a refill will have a major impact on the ultimate sales of Viagra.'' IMS HEALTH IMS HEALTH is the world's leading provider of information solutions to the pharmaceutical and healthcare industries. With more than $1 billion in 1997 revenue, IMS HEALTH operates in over 90 countries. IMS HEALTH is the largest pharmaceutical manufacturer information partner, with over 40 years' experience in the industry. Key products and services integral to customer day-to-day operations include: market research for prescription and over-the- counter pharmaceutical products; sales management information to optimize sales force productivity; technology enabled selling solutions for sales and marketing decision-making; technologies systems and information services that support managed care organizations. Additional information and previous press releases are available at IMS HEALTH's Web site: imshealth.com. SOURCE: IMS HEALTH

To: Anthony Wong who wrote (3970)	7/6/1998 11:07:00 PM
From: BigKNY3	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9523

Another PFun day today: Last Price: 109 1/2 at 17:01 Change: Up 2 (+1.86%) High: 109 1/2 at 15:59 Low: 105 5/8 at 10:09 Open: 106 1/2 Previous Close: 107 1/2 on 7/2 Volume: 4,753,400 30-Day Avg. Volume: 4,331,000 Shares Outstanding: 1,305,631,000 52-Week High: 121 3/4 52-Week Low: 51.06 Beta: 1.09 Yield: 0.70% P/E Ratio: 61.9 EPS: 1.77 As noted in yesterday's Peabody Report, today's low of 105 5/8 broke the 8% decline mark from the last Peabody Peak (114.94) by 1/8th of a point. Accordingly, today's low marked a new Peabody Valley. www3.techstocks.com As noted in the Peabody Short-term PForecast, Mr. P add 100 shares @106 to the Peabody Portfolio. Other PFEr News: AOL's Motley Fool PFEr Board has challenged the SI PFEr Board in the second quarter EPS contest. I will post their estimates to determine the most accurate board. Good luck! Have PFun! BigKNY3

To: Anthony Wong who wrote (3970)	7/6/1998 11:49:00 PM
From: BigKNY3	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9523

Listed below is an update of ED specification based on published IMS Internet posts. Highlights are follows: -Total Viagra prescriptions have surpassed 2.67 million since launch (13 weeks).This is the highest specification ever acheived for a new product in the history of Big Pharma. -Viagra total Rxs for the week ending June 26th remained flat as compared to the prior week with new Rxs declining 6.5%. -Indicative of its therapeutic success and future repeat business, Viagra refill Rxs showed very strong growth (+16.9%), the 11th consecutive increase for refills. The important Viagra Refill/New Rx ratio has moved up to a very healthy 53.4%. -The average number of Viagra tablets per Rx is 8.5. Note: The Memorial Day holiday had a negative impact on the 5/29/98 data. Have PFun! BigKNY3 __________________________________________________________ ED New RXs .....................................................% Share.......% Share ......Week....Viagra........MUSE........ Viagra.........MUSE ..... Ending...New Rxs....New Rxs.....New Rxs.....New Rxs 13..6/26/98....141,877.....2,124...........98.5%...........1.5% 12..6/19/98....151,579.....2,210...........98.6%...........1.4% 11..6/12/98....168,610.....2,154...........98.7%...........1.3% 10..6/05/98....192,585.....2,035...........99.0%...........1.0% 9....5/29/98....161,405.....2,097............98.7%.........1.3% 8....5/22/98.....236,525.....2,344............99.0%.........1.0% 7....5/15/98.....262,566....2,373............99.1%........ 0.9% 6....5/8/98.......278,715....2,588.............99.1%.........0.9% 5.....5/1/98......269,842....2,945........ 98.9%.........1.1% 4.....4/24/98.....207,868 ..3,524........ 98.3%.........1.7% 3.....4/17/98.....113,134....4,609....... 96.1%..........3.9% 2....4/10/98 ......36,263... 6,716..........84.4%.........15.6% 1....4/3/98............ 546... 7,998..............6.4%........93.6% 0....3/27/98...... ...... 0... 9,593 .............0.0%.......100.0% Total .............2,221,705...53,310 Avg Post Viagra.170,900....3,363.........98.1%........1.9% Avg. 1997........................12,594 ...% Chg Post/1997.............-73.3% ________________________________________ ED Refill RXs ............................................................% Share......% Share ......Week...Viagra.............MUSE...........Viagra..........MUSE ......Ending..Refill Rxs.........Refill Rxs......Refill Rxs....Refill Rxs 13..6/26/98...75,748.............2,531...........96.8%..........3.2% 12..6/19/98...68,689.............2,484...........96.5%..........3.5% 11..6/12/98...64,781.............2,630...........96.1%..........3.9% 10..6/05/98....63,323.............2,755..........95.8%..........4.2% 9....5/29/98....49,452.............2,737..........94.8%........ 5.2% 8....5/22/98....45,972..............3,026.........93.8%........ 6.2% 7....5/15/98....35,100..............3,078.........91.9%.........8.1% 6....5/8/98......24,700...............3,277........88.3%......... 11.7% 5....5/1/98.......16,429............. 3,659.......81.8%......... 18.2% 4....4/24/98.......7,508..............3,824.......66.3%......... 33.7% 3....4/17/98.......2,109..............4,290.......33.0%......... 67.0% 2....4/10/98 .........429..............4,677..... 8.4%........... 91.6% 1....4/3/98...............0...............5,031.......0.0%...........100.0% 0....3/27/98.............0...............4,873..... 0.0%...........100.0% Total.................453,240. ...........43,999 Avg Post Viagra..37,770..............3,385.....91.8%......... 8.2% Avg. 1997...................................3,278 % Chg Post/1997...........................3.2% _____________________________________________________ ED Total Rxs ....................................................................% Share....% Share ......Week................Viagra.........MUSE.........Viagra.........MUSE ..... Ending...............Total Rxs....Total Rxs....Total Rxs....Total Rxs 13..6/26/98..............217,625......4,655..............97.9%.....2.1% 12..6/19/98..............219,458......4,694..............97.9%.....2.1% 11..6/12/98..............233,391......4,784..............98.0%.....2.0% 10..6/05/98..............255,908......4,799..............98.2%.....1.8% 9....5/29/98..............210,857......4,834............. 97.8%.....2.2% 8....5/22/98 ............ 282,497......5,370............ 98.1%.....1.9% 7....5/15/98............. 297,666......5,451............. 98.2%.....1.8% 6....5/8/98............... 303,415......5,865............. 98.1%.....1.9% 5....5/1/98............... 286,271......6,604............. 97.7%......2.3% 4....4/24/98............. 215,376......7,348............. 96.7%......3.3% 3....4/17/98............. 115,243......8,899..............92.8%.......7.2% 2....4/10/98 ..............36,692.....11,393.............76.3%.....23.7% 1....4/3/98.......................546.....13,029..............4.0%......96.0% 0....3/27/98 .............. .........0.....14,466............ 0.0%.....100.0% Total......................2,674,945.....102,191 .....Avg Post Viagra....205,765.......6,748..............96.8%.......3.2% ......Avg. 1997..............................15,872 ......% Chg Post/1997....................-57.5% ______________________________________________________ ED Ratio: Refill Rxs/New Rxs ........................Viagra.........MUSE ..... Week.........% refills/......% refills/ .... Ending........New Rxs.....New Rxs 13..6/26/98...........53.4%.....119.2% 12..6/19/98...........45.3%.....112.4% 11..6/12/98...........38.4%.....122.1% 10..6/05/98...........32.9%.....135.4% 9....5/29/98............30.6%....130.5% 8....5/22/98............19.4%....129.1% 7....5/15/98 ...........13.1%....129.7% 6....5/8/98................8.9%....126.6% 5....5/1/98................6.1%....124.2% 4....4/24/98..............3.6%....108.5% 3....4/17/98 .............1.9%.....93.1% 2....4/10/98 .............1.2%.....69.6% 1....4/3/98 ............. 0.0%....62.9% 0....3/27/98............ ......... 50.8% .....Avg Post Viagra......22.1%...100.6% ......... Avg. 1997.......................26.0% Notes -New Rxs: The key to the health of a new product. Look for volume, market share and growth trends. Viagra new Rxs are expected to plateau and decline due to heavy initial trial usage. Holidays will effect weekly totals. -Refill Rxs: An important indicator of the efficacy and toleration of a new product particularly one for prn therapy such as ED. These patients will not refill a product that is not working or is causing adverse reactions. According to IMS, ''a key barometer to measure the market demand and acceptance of Viagra will be the refill rate of prescriptions. It provides insight into how consumers like the results and how they are reacting to news about the product. The time it takes a consumer to decide to get a refill will have a major impact on the ultimate sales of Viagra.'' -Refill/New Rx Ratio: Another indicator of a product's success. After an initial launch period of 4-6 months, a successful new product should have a refill ratio of at least 50%. Conversely, a product with a refill ratio of less than 50% after 4-6 months may not have been viewed as effective, well-tolerated, or available. In addition, a ratio of greater than 110% may result from a sharp decline in new specification due to alternative new therapies ....while the remaining satisfied patients continue to refill their Rxs. If this ratio is significantly higher than historical norms, the product may be in trouble.

To: Anthony Wong who wrote (3970)	7/7/1998 12:38:00 AM
From: BigKNY3	Read Replies (7) \| Respond to of 9523

The Great PFEr Board Challenge! For the first time ever: two PFEr investment Boards have taken up the challenge to predict PFE's next earnings. May the best Board have the most PFun! BigKNY3 AOL Motley Fool PFEr Board: 33 PFErs estimate 2nd quarter EPS will be $0.505, a 44.3% increase over second quarter, 1997. Silicon Investor PFEr Board: 5 PFErs estimate 2nd quarter EPS will be $0.518, a 48% increase over second quarter, 1997. AOL Motley Fool PFEr Board Newbie ..........................2nd Quarter..% Change PFEr...................... EPS...........over 1997.... Comments DAVIDKULBE.......$0.58.......... 65.7%.....Gradual increase in earnings R Reger 1.............$0.58.......... 65.7%.....Sold more V ATCBN..................$0.57.......... 62.9% JJENGLAND......... $0.57...........62.9%.....Viagra not accounted for VandanaJ............. $0.57...........62.9% Hawaii60 ...............$0.56.......... 60.0%.....Viagra beats estimates PRESSmUp...........$0.56..........60.0%.....Solid showing, higher V BIP999................ $0.55..........57.1% Gqprstar.............. $0.54..........54.3% Malterport..............$0.54..........54.3%.....Power of Viagra Haod3.................. $0.51.........45.7%.....Viagra spectacular McMenus.............. $0.51.........45.7% Northon.................$0.51.........45.7%.....Viagra sales in other channels Sinbadnaz............ $0.51........45.7%......Viagra & Lipitor AKASONNY.......... $0.50........42.9% Cisco 320............. $0.50........42.9% DBrown1041......... $0.50........42.9%......Viagra Uclaborn............... $0.50........42.9% Dave0500............. $0.49.......40.0%.....V underestimated Celtic422.............. $0.48.......37.1%....Trovan,V,Lipitor DaTRDR............. $0.48........37.1%...Impact of Viagra DRUGSTOCK........ $0.48......37.1% JWasiko215 ..........$0.48......37.1%.....V sales $300M RPH75.................. $0.48......37.1%......V sales greater than expected URGataChow........$0.47......34.3%.....Trovan kicking in SLCKing68........... $0.47......34.3% .....Worldwide approval of V Alottery................. $0.47......34.3% .....Viagra MrBluff................. $0.47......34.3% ......Viagra and Lipitor BigKNY3...............$0.46...... 31.4%......PFE just beats Consensus REXTRUT..............$0.45......28.6% ROGPOW............$0.45...... 28.6%.....Not enough to support price MAABE*............... $0.44......25.7% Prvateplez............. $0.44......25.7% .....Positive PFE statement Consensus....33....$0.505 44.3% SI PFEr Board ..........................2nd Quarter..% Change PFEr...................... EPS...........over 1997.... Comments Zurdo....................$0.57...........62.9% .........PFE just beats Consensus Hunter Vann .........$0.55........... 57.1% LR ........................$0.53...........51.4% Anthony Wong.......$0.48...........37.1% BigKNY3............... $0.46...........31.4% Consensus....5......$0.518......... 48.0% ___________________________________________________________ Second quarter PFE earnings will be reported around Wednesday, July 15, 1998. This earnings report will include for the first time the impact of Viagra sales on the bottom line. All PFErs, Pharmers, and lurkers are invited to submit entries. The Challenge will be open until midnight of the night before the official PFE earnings press release. Entries can be changed at anytime during the contest. Good luck!! _________________________________________________________ PFE 2nd Quarter, 1998 Earnings The Challenge What will be the PFE Earnings Per Share for the 2nd Quarter, 1998? $___________ Please provide a sentence or two to support your estimate. References PFE Zachs earning consensus 2nd Quarter, 1998 EPS estimates: $0.43 (+23%) (Range: $0.41-$0.55)